RIP Braves

I'm starting to get a really bad feeling about this. The Mets should put away the division, but the wild card is now a real possibility for Atlanta, which means Schuerholz can justifiably make some deals, which means they get better ... GRRRRRRRRRR!

 

The Braves won't continue to score 10-plus runs a game, like they have in every game since the break. Their only shot is if Andruw goes on a tear like he did last year to keep the streak alive.

 

Andruw very well could. 5-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI tonight puts him past Pujols for the NL lead in the latter category.

But there's no way the pitching is even remotely contendable. If only Time Warner weren't controlling the pursestrings and Schuerholz could do what he does best. Grrrrrr, indeed.

 

The one thing the Braves have got going for them is there ain't no way the bullpen can possibly be as shitty in the second half as it was in the first half. And all this pitching they're doing with big leads can only help 'em out.

Don't misread what I'm saying here. The bullpen's still shitty. It's just that it was so shitty and so unlucky that there ain't no way possible it can blow as many saves in the second half. At some point, the luck has to swing a little bit the other way.

 

Because they're bad they won't be bad the rest of the season?

Makes no sense.

 

Yeah, it kind of does.
The Braves' bullpen isn't nearly as bad as it performed in the first half. And it very well could not be nearly as good as it may perform in the second half.
The thing about baseball is, it's a marathon, not a sprint. And most of the time, by the end of #162, the numbers are sort of where they should be. Like the odds evening out or something.

Sort of like the Washington Nationals last year. A .500 team, not nearly as good as their 51-30 start.
They were something like 24-10 in one-run games in the first half. They weren't that good. They then proceeded to go 10-24 in that category the second half. Result? Right about where they probably should have been.

 

Even your manager, cranky Frank, says that ain't gonna happen.
Would have to go 42-26, something like that?

 

How many games do the Braves have left with the Mets?

 

9..... 3 in Atlanta next weekend (July 28-30), 3 in NY Sept 4-6; 3 in Atlanta the second-to-last series of the season (Sept. 26-28).

In other words, not enough to catch them without a lot of help.

Let's take extremes...give the Braves 7 wins in 9 games against the Mets... if the Mets play .500 in their other 60 games, they finish with 88 wins. The Braves, in their 59 remaining games other than the Mets would have to go 36-23 just to tie.
And that's giving the team that has played .600+ ball all season a sub-.500 record the rest of the way and the team that has been sub-.500 all season a .610+ mark the rest of the way.
In other words, no, the Braves will not win the division.

 

Spnited, I agree with you that the Braves aren't going to win the division, but I don't think those numbers indicate a mortal lock. Highly unlikely, certainly, but not impossible.

 

I don't think they catch the Mets, but is there any other team in the National League you trust to lock down the wild card if Atlanta is breathing down their necks? And in the NL, the wild card somehow always winds up as the World Series rep anyway.