Romney a Lock - You Can Put it On the Board YESSSS!!

Yes, I see your point. The President campaigning for votes must surely be a sign of weakness.

And you might do well to look at an electoral map. They both have a hard time in IN, OH, VA and NC. That's why they're swing states.

The difference is Romney needs all four of them, plus about five more. Obama wins any of them, it's game over.

Romney's drawing to an inside straight -- and he needs to go runner-runner. Could he suck out? Sure. But it ain't likely.

 

$500?

 

I do think Obama and Romney will have quite a few idiot moments from now until November. That's clear.

But who will catch the middle? Obama sure isn't pursuing them. He needs his base. Romney will need his base as well.

I think Romney benefits now in that Republicans did not win the senate in 2010. If that would've happened, they would have overplayed their hand, as they did in 1995. Which would lead to a comfortable Obama win in 2012.

 

Ask female voters in Virginia and Ohio if the GOP overplayed its hand.

 

Obama isn't pursuing independents and Republicans DIDN'T overplay their hand ...

It's almost like you're unaware of anything that hasn't originated with Fox News.

 

The really funny thing is even after Obama wins, we're going to go through this for another four years, because Willard "wasn't conservative enough."

 

Pop quiz. Greece spends an inordinate amount of money on its military. Which supposedly austere European country has sold them the bulk of that military equipment and lent them the money to do it?

I'll give you a hint: It's the country with the supposedly rock-solid economy built on lending its money to the profligate southern Europeans so that the southern Europeans can buy the goods that underpin that rock-solid economy.

 

Actually, no, our economy has had a much stronger recovery than Europe and has emerged from its recession, thanks, in part, to the less-than-adequate-but-still-better-than-nothing stimulus that the Obama administration was able to push through a Congress whose right wing was hell-bent on obstructing the administration's efforts to stimulate the economy.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2012/04/25/bloomberg_articlesM30CW30YHQ0X01-M31CM.DTL

"The domestic economy is faring far better than people thought and that, even in the face of Europe and the slowdown in the emerging world, is blowing away estimates," said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist for Well Capital Management, which oversees about $333 billion.

Growth chart:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

 

I don't think the Republican base is a majority, or plurality. But, most "independent" voters do lean one way, or the other.

So, while it is important to "fight for the middle", getting the base out is critical. It's an advertising truism that it's easier/cheaper to retain customers than it is to acquire new ones.

And, if you look at GWB's 2004 campaign as a template, it was all about getting out his base, and/or appealing to like minded potential voters, not voters in the middle. And, he brought out a record number of voters.

 

He might need to get a bunch of them, but the comparison to an inside straight isn't apt.

Cards are dealt at random. The probability of drawing an inside straight is low.

Elections often swing one way or another. Momentum, and national issues can carry the day. If Romney wins a couple of the states you mention, the odds of him winning most, or even all of them, is pretty good.

 

Funny how Germany wasn't nearly as concerned about it for all the years that Greece was spending money it didn't have, as long as it got that money. Amazing how they suddenly realized it was a problem. Simply amazing.