Romney a Lock - You Can Put it On the Board YESSSS!!

That's definitely a part of it. ("We're just going to pass these laws for other reasons, and if they *happen* to significantly take down turnout rates among minorities, that's good for us but wasn't our intention, we swear." It reminds me of a little kid saying "I'm going to just start punching air, and if you happen to be in that air it's your fault.")

But I think that also signifies the enthusiasm problem Obama is going to face. He's not running to be Our New Bicycle anymore.

 

Gallup has Romney 46%, Obama 45%.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx

An incumbent this far from 50% is not in a good place.

 

Right. It's why Palin and Huckabee didn't run. They're much better off having not run than having run and lost.

Hopefully that means that none of the other candidates (other than Romney) from this year are every heard from again.

 

Anyone else concerned?

 

Are we really going to bring up every poll between now and the election?

 

Don't get me wrong, I hope Romney continues to gain on Obama, but I'd be lying if I said I was anything other than stunned by it. I've seen so many polls that show how likable Obama is and how much everyone hates Romney that you begin to expect this election to resemble 1984 rather than 2004.

 

Terribly.

 

The basic premise is that folks now the incumbent. If they were going to vote for him, they would know it, and say it. If they aren't willing to commit to him, then they are giving the challenger a serious look, and will likely break that way.

That's why it's so important the Republicans nominated a serious nominee.

Nate Silver takes a closer look here:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/11/incumbents-polling-below-50-often-win-re-election-despite-conventional-wisdom/

He's not as sold on the theory. An actual lead matters to him more, and the number of undecideds makes a big difference.

I'd still predict an Obama victory today, if I had to. But, it's going to be close.

If I was an Obama supporter, I would be concerned.

 

Well, it's interesting when the polls are saying the polar opposite of what we hear on the news.

Based on what you hear on the news, it's very easy to be convinced that Romney has no chance in hell, and maybe that will wind up being the case...

 

Really good look at the 9 swing states that will decide the election:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/06/us/politics/9-swing-states-key-to-election-are-mixed-lot.html

Makes many of the same points you've made -- including the (changing) demographics of the states.

And yet, there is a chance Romney runs the table and takes the election. It's not chance. It's not random. It's not a deck of cards.

So, while it might look like a small probability, it is entirely possible.