Romney a Lock - You Can Put it On the Board YESSSS!!

I agree that Rubio has to be the pick. I think he will accept, but I don't know that for a fact. I would assume that would lock up Florida for Romney, but the far more important state is Ohio and I don't think there is any VP pick who could guarantee that Ohio will go for Romney.

I don't think Pennsylvania is in play. I wouldn't think Wisconsin would be either. I think Obama will win Virginia, which should be enough for him to win re-election.

 

Rubio seems strong on foreign policy which is a need for Romney

 

I will be very curious what kind of a boost, if any, Rubio gives Romney.

 

Yeah, if you know the percentages, you can pretty much extrapolate the number of electoral votes.

But, assuming it's very close, you can expect it to come down to a couple of swing states.

That being said, you couldn't have predicted in previous elections that the Pledge of Allegiance, membership in the ACLU, Flag Burning, or Swift Boats, would move votes.

Ant they did -- on a national basis. Let's see what 2012 brings us.

 

He's a closet Mormon, at least that's what the conspiracy theorists will say. (I know Rubio and his family were Mormon for a few years during his youth)

 

There's considerable political science research indicating that none of the things you mentioned YF had any impact on the elections they took place in whatsoever. Politicometrics indicate that Bush I was never gonna lose to Dukakis because the economy was in good shape, and that Bush II actually won by less than he should have in '04 considering economic conditions and the lingering residue of 9/11.
Not saying I totally agree with those statements, but that's what academic poli sci indicates.
And if we look at it the other way, Gennifer Flowers, smoking but not inhaling, Bill Ayers and Rev. Wright did NOT determine the 1992 and 2008 elections because fundamentals were working for the challengers instead.

 

There are two wildcards (well, politically speaking...when you throw in current events like Iran, oil, Europe there are dozens of wild cards):

1. The SuperPacs of Rove and Shel Adelson will spend a billion dollars making Obama look like a cross between Jimmy Carter/Michael Dukakis and Hitler/Bin Laden. The amount of negative ads we're going to see on TV and the Internet will be staggering. Lots of pundits are saying Obama will spend a billion, too...but my family member who is a political wonk for a major union says that's bullshit, Obama supporters will be lucky to have $700 million.

2. OTOH, the GOP's ground game is in shambles. Lots of local and state Republican Party branches are broke, in disarray, or both. And when push comes to shove, you gotta get people into the booths on election day. (Well, unless you can pull another Diebold-in-Ohio out of the hat).

 

Well, this might be in Romney's favor: Mormonism is one of the fastest-growing religions in the United States, measured by self-reports from congregations. This might be in Obama's favor: so is Islam. (Ba-dum BUM!)

http://www.rcms2010.org/press_release/ACP%2020120501.pdf

Actually, what's most fascinating about this survey, which is done every 10 years, is how unchurched, untempled and unmosqued we are as a country despite religion seeming to be in the front and center of everything. Only eight states (all in the south, except Utah) report a religious adherents population of greater than 50 percent. (These are people who actually go to worship, not those who identify as a faith, but don't go.) This might help explain the drumbeat of the "War on Christianity" and the push for more religion in the public square. It's not that, by numbers, the religious have everyone else over a barrel. It's that they're screaming louder to fend off irrelevance.

 

All of that's correct.

But, of course, if you go just by the academic polisci research, Obama's gonna lose this one in a rout, because of the economy.

They're forever fighting the last battle. Not necessarily a knock. Just a caveat.

 

No, Zeke, the academic research indicates a close election, as while the economy is hardly in good shape, it is slowly improving, and the research says it's the direction the economy is moving as much or more than its absolute level that moves voters.
At this point, more of the few academics who're willing to make a prediction have picked Obama than have picked Romney. But it's a small percentage of the total, and their peers are largely criticizing them.

 

That's sort of beside the point I was making, which is that the academic research is fun and often elucidating, but when it comes to actually predicting the election, you can have every academic in the country and I'll take Nate Silver.

 

Regarding No. 1, it'll be interesting to see that if at some point, the ads (on both sides) will reach such a saturation point where they become ineffective.

If I'm an undecided voter, and both sides are bombarding me with ads on TV, the Internet, and robo-calls, I'm not getting influenced, I'm getting annoyed.