Romney a Lock - You Can Put it On the Board YESSSS!!

Remind me again how Romney is supposed to win if he loses Ohio?

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/05/obama-up-7-in-ohio.html

 

Ohio is going to be tough, but can we employ some sort of standards, please?

If you're going to dismiss Rasmussen, because of his methods, and bias, you can't view PPP as legit. They use the same methods, and are just as biased.

 

Without Ohio, he needs Pennsylvania or Iowa/Colorado/Something Else.

McCain + Florida, NC, Indiana, Iowa, spare NE EV, Colorado and Virginia gets Romney to 263.

The something else would have to be at least 6 EV, so Nevada, Minnesota or Pennsylvania, all which were with 12.5 points last time around.

Real Clear Politics has a reasonable article stating that the so-called "narrow" path isn't quite as narrow as many believe:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/05/08/romneys_path_is_not_necessarily_narrow-2.html

But realistically, if Romney isn't several points ahead in Ohio going into Election Day, he's not doing well enough to win any of those states either.

 

See. I respect your reply but don't agree with the Positive President thinking. Reply was thoughtful. Thank you. (seriously. No sarcasm as I write this).

 

Did I dismiss Rasmussen? Where?

 

Apparently you're not prepared to listen to yourself. Just a page ago you took a post from Chris about a Rasmussen Poll and turned it into a long post about all the things wrong with Obama and his re-election chances.

 

While they both robodial, they aren't the same, as PPP has not been painstakingly shown to have its thumb on the scale via the screen that Rasmussen has.

Further, at least this is a state poll with a decent sized sample. It's better than posting overnight tracking as though it means something on a day-to-day basis.

Tracking is useful... For tracking movement.

 

I just glanced at that, but it's "reasonable" only if you think Mitt Romney is going to win in Minnesota or Wisconsin or Colorado.

Mitt Romney is not going to win those states, and in the dream scenario where he did, it would be over before he did, anyway.

It's really pointless conjecture. Romney's path is what it is. And it's damn narrow.

 

The Gallup & Politico polls were posted as well -- by me -- and they were right in line with Rasmussen.

Romney may be behind in Ohio. He probably is. But, i would expect the same people who dismiss Rasmussen, to often point out the flaws with PPP.

They are an acknowledged Democrat polling outfit. They make their money by polling for DailyKos and Dem candidates. Their founder admits to putting out (self financed) polls in order to drive the narrative.

This isn't a neutral group. They have a rooting interest.

 

Romney can't win without Ohio. No way he loses Ohio but wins Pennsylvania.

I would argue that, on 2012, Iowa is NOT (edit) more left leaning than Ohio. Ohio has far more urban and rust belt voters. I think Romney is more likely to pick up Iowa than he is to win Ohio.

IF Romney wins OH and FL (and picks NC, VA, IN and MO), then it comes down to IA and CO. For Romney, that means it comes down to IA.

 

Even if the college kids and the women with their free birth control decide to stop smoking dope and having sex long enough to vote?

 

The election isn't on welfare-check day, though, and that will favor Obama.