Romney a Lock - You Can Put it On the Board YESSSS!!

This keeps a good running count.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html

Romney got 33 in Wisconsin, and Santorum got 9. Romney got all 53 in Maryland and DC.

The current count is Romney 655, Santorum 272, Gingrich 140, Paul 67.

If Romney wins every delegate here on out, he can't clinch until May 22, when Kentucky and Arkansas have their primaries. However, many of the 13 states (including those two) have proportional primaries, so it will be pretty much impossible for Romney to win them all.

After that, Texas is next, May 29. That also is proportional.

The last big day is June 5, which includes California. It's winner-take-all, but Santorum can pick up delegates for winning individual Congressional districts.

Last primary is Utah, June 26.

My guess for Santorum staying in the race is this. Even if he knows he can't win (and I'm not sure he knows that), Santorum can build enough of a backing that, especially if he can combine it with Gingrich, will be a powerful force to be reckoned with come convention time. It's going to allow Santorum to get a prime speaking spot at the convention, a lot of say for evangelicals (as if they didn't already have it) in writing the party platform, and someone to make sure Romney doesn't shake the Etch-a-Sketch and leave rural evangelical white voters out of it.

Knowing this, it's also why Santorum's SuperPAC could attract money even if it's abundantly clear it's not going to result in the frothy one even getting the nomination. These folks are not going to let Mittens use and ignore them.

 

I have a scary feeling that Santorum will either pull some third party crap this year or come back in 2016.

I don't see him going away anytime soon.

 

Is there anything less meaningless, for either party, then the platform coming out of a convention?

 

He could use third-party as a gun at Romney's head, but the GOP suits do not look kindly at inter-party gun-at-head tactics.

If he doesn't pull out before PA and loses the state to Romney, his political life on the big stage is effectively over. Helllooo, FOX talking head.

If he doesn't pull out before PA and beats Romney, Mitt will never give 1913 the time of day, again.

It's verrrrrrrry interesting.

 

Fucking Iowa... If it's not for fucking Iowa, Santorum would have been forgotten by mid-January.

 

His absolute dream demographic, and he took it to represent the nation at large.

It is to laugh.

 

See, I think it's the opposite -- the longer Santorum stays in and collect delegates (however many he collects), the more Romney has to pay attention to him. That is, if Romney wants Santorum's people to come out, enthusiastically and in force, to polls in November.

A candidate who gets tepid endorsements and can't wrap up primary season until near convention time doesn't have the power to shove off anyone.

 

The thing is, how can Santorum - when he does finally lose - offer any kind of endorsement, especially after saying thinks like Republicans would be better off voting for Obama than Romney?

 

Which is what this is all about. The social conservatives want to punish the party for selecting Romney but crippling him for the general election.

 

That happens all the time. Hillary Clinton and her people said some nasty stuff about Obama, but it was Hillary who called for a voice vote of affirmation for Obama's nomination.

If Romney gives Santorum what he wants, Santorum will shout from the rooftops that Mittens is the greatest candidate ever.

 

... So when he gets rolled they can say it's because he wasn't a conservative.

Santorum was on about Reagan losing in 1976 the other night.

 

I like the Morning Joe approach. If Santorum refuses to drop out, Romney should squish him like a bug in his home state. There will be no 2016 for the frothy one, no 2020, no 2024.