Running 2011 Baseball Thread, Vol. I: Dedicated to spnited

I think Olney is stating something that is usually brushed aside completely by the sabermetricians; it's the kind of thinking that is keeping Jack Morris out of the HOF when he deserves to be there.

But he's overstating the times that happens too. It's mostly a New York-centric way of arguing that Sabathia is a great, great pitcher when he isn't.

 

Yeah, really. Again, he has great sources. That's why I read him. Every day. But his statistical analysis is sorely lacking. Bill Plaschke sucks at it, too. I still read him.

 

Show me some proof that Jack Morris or Tim Lincecum's or anyone's numbers are significantly better over the course of their careers in close games than they are with large leads, and we'll talk.

 

And Jack Morris doesn't deserve to be in the Hall, either.

 

Opposing hitters off of Jack Morris, career

Tie game: 249/319/373
1-run game: 244/313/371
2-run game: 247/315/375
3-run game: 247/314/377
4-run game: 247/314/379
>4-run game: 249/310/389

Any questions?

 

Morris' ERA, career, with 0-5 runs of support: 3.72
Morris' ERA, career, with 6+ runs of support: 4.24

ALSO: Morris' career ERA, ninth inning, 2.78, by far his lowest ERA of any inning

 

I'd totally put Morris in the Hall though. Pretty good + great postseason moment = HOFer, for me. But I'm a huge Hall guy.

 

Where is he most likely to get 0-5 runs of support? Pitchers parks.

Where is he most likely to get 6+ runs of support? Hitters parks.

My numbers were pretty much conclusive to this argument.

 

His home and road career ERAs are exactly the same at 3.90, and he allowed HRs at a greater rate at home with a park factor of slightly under 100, so I don't know how accurate your guess is. Probably something to it but not in and of itself conclusive, I would imagine quite a few of those 6+ run games came at home too.

Another: Jack Morris' career ERA by month.

April 4.45
May 3.99
June 4.12
July 3.85
August 3.91
Sept/Oct 3.26

He also was 6-1, 2.60 in the postseason until '92 in Toronto, when he was 37 and just got bombed.

AND:

Batters v. Jack Morris, career .247/.313/.380
Batters v. Jack Morris, late & close .238/.297/.355

 

Great postseason pitcher? I can buy that.

Good second half-pitcher? Sure.

Performed differently according to the score? Proven false.

 

Those late & close numbers are quite a bit lower than other situations, so I don't see how you have proven false the idea that he wasn't better in close games.

 

Tie game: 249/319/373
1-run game: 244/313/371
2-run game: 247/315/375
3-run game: 247/314/377
4-run game: 247/314/379
>4-run game: 249/310/389