Running 2011 Baseball Thread, Vol. I: Dedicated to spnited

http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/rob-bradford/2011/10/11/jonathan-papelbon-bracing-himself-brave-new-w

Now he says it isn't about money, after saying he wanted to break the bank for a ML closer.

 

It's been a problem all postseason for Detroit. Look at Game 4 against NY, bases loaded with a chance to close out at home and get some huge runs early and...nothing. I saw some stat that they have left over like 32 men on base this postseason, something crazy. Guys like Cabrera and V-Mart are even struggling to get RBIs, and they were tops at that during the regular season. You can't beat Texas scoring two or three runs, they are too loaded.

 

I think he's probably surveying the market correctly. I almost wonder if he takes arbitration, if it's offered to him. He'll probably get around $10 million for one year for that, whereas I don't think there is a Mets-like team out there willing to give him K-Rod money.

 

Outing alert: Is there a second St. Louis Cardinals fan in the house besides myself? lol

 

He knows his value isn't as high as when he made the asinine comments. He is backtracking.

Any team would be foolish to sign him. But some idiot team is going to think that Papelbon is so much better than the many younger and cheaper alternatives either in the system or on the market that they absolutely have to shell out big money for him.

 

He's an interesting guy. He has that "proven closer" sheen, although critics can also easily point out that he's been the guy on the mound for the past two Red Sox "choke" jobs (this year and the Angels' playoff series). He doesn't have Rivera's cut fastball, but he pretty much succeeds by just pounding the strike zone with fastballs and not dicking around a ton, so maybe he'll retain his value as he ages.

That being said, I think a long-term contract for any sort of reliever is normally an exercise in folly. Rivera and Hoffman and even middle relief guys like Mike Adams are the exception, and I feel like it's nearly impossible to pinpoint the guys worth keeping vs. the flash in the pan guys.

 

None of these closer contracts have ever worked out great, going back to the grandaddy Mark Davis deal.

Acquiring relief talent cheaply and efficiently is the next Moneyball. They used to say fielding was the final frontier. That area has been pretty well staked out.

 

It's a fine notion to acquire relief pitchers cheaply and "efficiently" but this runs into a big problem. ALL relief pitchers, with a handful of Hall of Fame exceptions, are erratic. The cheap ones are even more erratic than the expensive ones, meaning the chances of acquiring a successful bullpen full of cheap pitchers are low indeed.
Papelbon's been in the bigs for six years now. He's had one really bad season (2010) and otherwise has been very good. He's a reasonable investment, better than hiring four Sammy Sorearms for short dough and hoping one pans out.
It only takes one bum to turn a bullpen to ashes. Daniel Bard, supposedly Papelbon's heir apparent, was as responsible as any Sox for the team's slump down the stretch. Bard had a 2-9 record, which is pretty amazing for a set-up guy. Those are nine games blown from the 7th inning on.

 

Francona doesn't have any business in the booth. He should still be managing the effing Red Sox.
Having said that, he's running circles around Deion Sanders' old buddy and he actually makes Joe Buck look good.

 

The Red Sox paid Papelbon $12 million for 64.1 innings of work. That's 255 batters he faced of the 6,242 batters that Red Sox pitchers faced in 2011. He wound up participating in about 6 percent of his team's innings.

There is nothing reasonable about that investment.

 

The Rangers still have Uehara. Colby Lewis is a far different pitcher in the postseason. This will be all but over tonight unless the Tigers figure him out.

 

Which is all easy to say until you run into a team that doesn't have a guy who can do the job.