Running 2011 Baseball Thread, Vol. I: Dedicated to spnited

By the way, if you can stomach a lot of heavy numbers, there is a pretty interesting new study about drafting on Baseball Prospectus:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15306

Basically: MLB teams have been making the same mistake as NBA teams, in that they're not properly accounting for player ages. A high school senior that's 17 when he graduates has a much, much greater chance of reaching the majors than a high school senior that's 18+. Or, to take some summary paragraphs from later in the piece:

 

Somewhere out there, some teams that already knew this and were taking advantage are kicking a water cooler.

 

Doesn't that kind of kill the Malcolm Gladwell kindergarten redshirt idea?

 

22 players failing doesn't seem like a big enough sample size to make a sweeping generalization, does it?

 

It squares with the overall data that came from a sample of 846 players.

 

Mariano Rivera wasn't some super-closer in the making on the way up, either. It's not how you find the guys. It's how you keep them once they have proven themselves.

 

If I'm not mistaken, Rivera was actually a starting pitcher until his second year in the majors, when they made him Wetteland's set-up man.

 

Yeah. I tried to include the best summary paragraphs I could find in the piece, which is probably more than 2,000 words.

Re: the Gladwell thing, I think it actually gels with it. The quicker you can get to professional instruction, it seems the greater your chances of producing, in terms of quality and quantity.

 

They did look elsewhere, though. Axford wasn't just undiscovered, he was totally off the grid. The most Papelbon is going to give you is 60-some-odd excellently pitched innings, and that's if he doesn't get hurt or become ineffective (as many in his phylum do). The B.J. Ryan contract should have taught people the folly of signing a closer to a long-term deal. But some shit-for-brains team will still want to back up the trucks for Papelbon.

 

My gut tells me this will not end well for the Rangers.

 

Rest easy, Cards fans. Punto in the starting lineup tonight.

 

Two games at home, only need one win. I'm a Tigers fan and my thoughts of winning the series go as follows:

20 percent chance as of right now ... 45 percent chance of winning a Game 7