Running 2011 Baseball Thread, Vol. I: Dedicated to spnited

There has never been and never will be enough competent pitchers to go around. Therefore, to argue a competent if not dominant pitcher like Wilson does not "deserve" a certain contract figure is to argue with the law of supply and demand. Look what freakin' John Lackey got for goodness sakes.

 

I wouldn't ... Carpenter will be pitching. You can't really do that until Game 7, because the Rangers could easily lose a couple in a row. But if it goes to Game 7, it's a good play.

 

As I said on the previous page, don't believe any of that gambling story is real until it's verified by the ticket-holder or the casino. Books just don't post 1,000-1 odds on things that could actually happen, and at the time this ticket was supposedly issued the Cardinals were 4 1/2 games out of a playoff spot with 15 games to go, hardly an insurmountable deficit. If 1,000-1 had been posted, every sharpie in town would have put $100 on it.

 

Lackey was a pretty good pitcher for several years before he got to Boston.

 

For me, the most important stat for pitchers is salary. You're probably wondering what the hell I'm talking about.

The problem is that the better stats are combinations of other stats. Even ERA is a combination of innings and earned runs allowed. ERA+ combines it with more stats. WAR uses all of those components and combines them with others.

You have to have some kind of ERA+ component and some kind of innings pitched component to evaluate a pitcher.

 

Yeah, that's a fair point ... I never looked at what the standings were on Sept. 12, I just assumed that was when the Cardinals were at their furthest back.

That said, if it is true, I'd wait until Game 7 before hedging my bets by laying money on the Rangers.

 

Grantland had a post yesterday about the author's friend "Nick" who, on Sept. 15, bet $20 on the Cardinals at 300-1 at Bellagio. They were 4.5 games back with 13 to play -- so, same deficit, less time to make it up, and at the same betting house (Bellagio and MGM are the same syndicate), and the odds were 300-1 instead of 999-1.

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/7156/the-intricate-balance-of-hedging-your-bet

300-1 seems a tad steep, I don't know if I totally believe it but I don't pay enough day-to-day attention to have a strong opinion on that. But with this info I would be even more surprised now if that other ticket is true.

 

OK, so how many lines did Ron Washington do after last night's game?

 

Rangers gave me a bit of a heart attack last night. Thought they were out of it as visions of last year's 2-0 hole flashed before my eyes.

1-1 going back to The Ballpark. Kyle Lohse and Edwin Jackson shouldn't scare anyone. Then again, Matt Harrison and Derek Holland shouldn't scare anyone either.

Going to be mighty interesting.

 

I didn't really think about it but yeah that definitely seems unlikely. i would think maybe 50-1 at that point.

bigpern, but if you don't put anything on the Rangers and they beat Carpenter you win nothing. 100k may be a lot, but if the story is accurate and you're that guy, you'd have to put maybe 50k on the Rangers in Game 5.

 

Lackey's ERA had also gone up two consecutive seasons before he got to Boston and he had a lot more mileage on his arm than Wilson does. He had missed time with injuries two consecutive years. He also has a history of being absolutely terrible in Fenway.