Running 2023-24 NCAA Basketball Thread

UNC loses to Georgia Tech. Other than Davis (a legitimate national player of the year candidate and good enough to win games himself a lot of nights) and generally Cadeau, that's a mediocre roster. Cormac Ryan was supposed to be a lights-out shooter for them, but he's 30% on the season from 3.

 

I have no sense of who the best teams are after UConn and Purdue, and Purdue is going to show me something in March before I can just shake off losing to a 15 and 16 seed in consecutive years.

Houston is amazing at home but blah on the road.

Tennessee looks like it can run you off the floor some nights but is inconsistent. The top of the ACC is very meh, despite UNC and Duke being in the top 10. Will say that Duke looked great the other night in Blacksburg.

I think we're in for another year with a weird Final Four team, like a Utah State or Dayton.

 

Good for you. Not even the most fervent Vol fans could understand that line.

 

Gee, an ACC with Chapel Hill and Duke atop the standings. What are the chances?

Problem is, the middle is so muddled - along with the conference not having the national clout it is accustomed to - could make getting a bunch of NCAA tournament bids a tough task. After the blue schools, it's Clemson and ... then ...

 

Duke and UNC have finished 1-2 in the ACC exactly one time in the last decade. Last year, they were 4th and 7th.

 

Also, it's insane that GT has won three ACC games this year - against Duke, UNC, and Clemson.

 

I mean, Virginia Tech absolutely gutted Georgia Tech on Saturday. Was never close. But with the Duke game coming up, I thought that game was going to be tricky last night for UNC.

Speaking of the Hokies, I know the NET looks good, but there's a shit ton of work to be done for them to even get on the bubble. Need quality road wins (who doesn't?) and the only ones left are Miami, UNC and Pitt. And they can't afford to lose to Notre Dame, Syracuse or Louisville on the road. The best home game left is Virginia.

 

The ACC just shit the bed (relatively speaking) in the non-con, and it's going to be an albatross for the entire conference. After UNC and Duke...

UVA is third and got boat-raced by Memphis and Wisconsin and has an awful loss to Notre Dame. Texas A&M and Florida are best non-conference wins. Not a great resume, but probably on the bubble, which seems right.
FSU is fourth with non-con losses to SMU, Florida, Georgia, Lipscomb, and USF. Can't put them in at this point, or really even close.
Wake is fifth with non-con losses to Utah, Georgia, and LSU. Best non-con wins are Florida and...Rutgers? They've got no margin for error.
NCSU is sixth. Best non-con win is...Vandy? The Citadel? Played a strong schedule against Tennessee, BYU, and Ole Miss but lost them all. Best overall wins are Wake and UVA. Pass.
Syracuse is 7th. No shame in losing to Tennessee and Gonzaga, but they're .500 in the ACC and their best wins came against Oregon and @Pitt. Can't imagine they're even within shouting distance of the bubble.
Miami is 8th. They started off pretty well but got blown out against their two decent non-con opponents (Kentucky and Colorado). Best wins are against Clemson and @VT. Lost 5 of last 8.

 

I am not a betting guy, but it seems in basketball these are often set closely to a metrics prediction like KenPom.

 

They are, and there aren't usually very many edges. But there were some crazy ones last night, including Oklahoma being a dog at Kansas State when K State has been nothing special at home all year. Nothing is really jumping off the page to me tonight, though Chicago State at +11.5 at Duquesne is interesting because CSU has been super plucky on the road this year. Kentucky -5.5 against Florida at home seems a touch low but that's a big rivalry so that's probably baked in.

 

Clemson has a good chance. Non con wins over Alabama, South Carolina and TCU. They nearly gave them all away last night, blowing most of a 24-point second-half lead to University-6 before holding on.

 

That feeling when the official NCAA account breaks out the cringe emoji on you.