Running 2023-24 NCAA Basketball Thread

I denounce this.

 

Let's play a little "who should they be scared of?" regarding some of the dominant mid- and low-majors this season.

America East: Vermont is 14-1, and the one loss was by two points to last-place NJIT. Someone is going to have to go to Burlington and knock the Catamounts off. The only opponent in league to keep it within five points up there was UMBC, which would have to win a couple of roadies to get to the final. Vermont swept the two teams behind it -- UMass Lowell and Bryant. Lowell probably has the best shot of pulling the upset.

American: South Florida's metrics are awful and they have no real at-large shot despite winning the regular-season title. They're 79th in the NET with two Q4 losses and only one Q1 win. The answer here is pretty obvious. The Bulls would rather not have to see FAU in that tournament.

Atlantic 10: There's a window for someone else to join Dayton in the field as an at-large. It's probably Richmond, which beat VCU last night. Loyola's 91 in the NET with no great wins. If Richmond needs to win the A-10 tournament to get in, it would probably like to avoid VCU or Dayton. VCU, it should be noted, has no at-large shot but has beaten UR, Loyola and Dayton this year. The Rams can absolutely win that tournament as long as they hold onto the double bye, which they would clinch by beating Duquesne at home on Tuesday.

Big South: High Point won the league and hosts the tournament. They somehow lost to last-place USC Upstate at home, and they could see the Spartans again should USCU knock off Radford in the opening round. I'd guess the team they'd like not to see would be UNC Asheville.

CAA: Charleston is rolling but got swept by UNCW, which is exactly who they may face in the semifinals. BYH2 can chime in here, but this feels like a weird season where anyone in the top eight can get on a run.

Ivy: Some chatter about Princeton as an at-large, but I don't see it. The tournament is at Columbia. Tigers lost to both Yale and Cornell on the road and will likely have to face one of those two in the final.

MVC: I think Indiana State's at-large hopes got shattered when the Trees lost those two Q4 games right after getting ranked. Drake seems like the team most likely to spoil it for ISU Blue.

Patriot: Colgate won the league by six games but has had some close calls. They can be nipped at home, as American and Lafayette both won there. Raiders will be a heavy favorite, but I think they'll be hoping not to see Lafayette.

SoCon: Samford has had a great year. They're 26-3 since dropping their first two games at Purdue and VCU. They swept UNCG, Chattanooga and Western Carolina -- the three teams right behind them in the standings. Of those, Western seems to be the most dangerous. Samford did drop road games to Wofford and Furman, and one of them could sneak into the semifinals.

Southland: McNeese's only league loss was by three points to Southeast Louisiana on the road. I saw these guys play at VCU to open the season and they're so much bigger and more athletic than most teams from this conference. And Will Wade is a major coach in a minor conference. I'd be stunned if they didn't make it through.

Sun Belt: This is going to be a hell of a tournament, especially if we can get an Appalachian State-JMU final. App swept the Dukes, who also lost to Southern Miss. App's losses were to Texas State and Troy on the road. Troy is probably the team to avoid for both.

WAC: Grand Canyon has been awesome but this is not a one-team race anymore. Tarleton State has won 10 straight and beat GCU at home. Would be a hell of a final if it happened again.

Now go fill out your Jerome entries...

 

Big West gets no love.....

 

Is UC San Diego eligible for the league tournament?

 

They are not.


On the surface, teams have had some 'good' Power 5 wins. Board gambling fav CSUN won at UCLA. UC Irvine and Long Beach State won at USC. Beach won at Michigan.

But of course those power 5 teams suck. UC Irvine has a pretty good team. The only one capable of maybe winning a game in the tourney.

 

Dan Monson has been stealing money from Long Beach State for over a decade. He has been at LB State for 17 years!

 

Re USF in the American, a guy on the UAB board pretty well nailed it. The league overall is pretty good. All of the competitive teams in the league have several WTF losses, and all of them have taken conference losses that hurt them.

"USF has worse losses than we do. Want to “game the NET”? Don’t lose to Central Michigan at home. Don’t have a 3 game stretch where you lose to Maine at home by double digits, then by 20 to Hofstra, then double digits to UMass. Give them credit for not losing a game since then outside of the loss to us, but the start of their season is a boat anchor on their NET and the NET of everyone in conference that they have beaten."

USF: NET of 84, RPI of 46

 

South Florida is a good example of why the committee should go back to using how a team performs down the stretch as one of its metrics. Teams grow and change over the course of a season, now more than ever with wholesale roster turnover. And they aren’t doing it in some tomato can league either.

 

It's a tool but their metrics still really stink. And those would be and are looked at more. A better example right now of the what have you done for me lately would be Gonzaga.

 

I'll add that their NET is moving up enough that they could be in the conversation. Their Q1-2 record is pretty decent, although they sure could use another Q1 win or three. The two Q4 losses are not a good look, even if they did something like last 10. There's an element that the whole season still does need to count.

 

And, different side of the same coin, Virginia, which has looked mostly awful since the eight-game win streak ended -- they're dead last in Haslam's momentum metric -- but still is being talked about by just about everyone as an at-large.

 

The mid-majors figured out how the RPI worked, and adjusted. So they had to come up with some new format to benefit the big conferences so they had a metric to hang their hat on when the picked eight Big Ten and seven SEC teams to fill about half of the at-large spots. Hence the NET, and hence the 38-place disparity for USF.

You take second in the A-10, Sun Belt, MVC ... too bad. They'll use the handy "you should have won your conference tournament" card, while letting in some Big Ten team like Nebraska that got beat in the conference tournament play-in game or quarterfinals.