Running MLB Thread, Part the Fourth, 2007

broadway joe · May 31, 2007

zagoshe said:

lantaur said:

zagoshe said:

Well let me follow up with this -- why is it Cy Young could win 500 games and pitchers once upon a time -- before technology and weight training and conditioning was so advanced -- would go complete games and throw incredible amounts of innings without getting hurt -- but pitchers today break down more, have lower pitch counts and seemingly less endurance and the 300-win pitcher seems to be extinct?

I just can't figure it out.
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I once heard someone - can't remember who - say that pitchers today are being trained to be relievers or work in a five-man rotation. Back "in the day" arm strength was built up by pitching all the time.

Plus, it helped being able to scuff a baseball. Or use a baseball that was partly lopsided and darkened, since they didn't put a new pitch in every batter. Also, I think pitchers let up a lot when they had big leads to conserve their arm.

What else? I'd say most pitchers threw a fastball, changeup and curve. Not too many speciality pitches back in the day (yes, I know Mathewson threw a screwball (fadeaway), Cicotte and others had a knuckleball, etc.).
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The reason I asked is because I had this argument with a Little League coach who told me his 11-year old was the ace of his staff and that he was already throwing mean curve balls. I told him he was probably ruining the kid's arm and he was putting undo strain on it and by letting him throw curves he isn't developing arm strength.

He didn't want to hear it but I've talked to old timers who told me a big problem is kids today are throwing too many junk pitches before their arm is developed enough to really handle that kind of strain.
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If you know a coach who has his 11-year-old throwing curveballs, kick him in the nuts. Repeatedly.

buckweaver · May 31, 2007

zagoshe said:

What I meant by the 300-winner becoming almost extinct is -- let's look at the guys with more than 200 wins -- I think Glavine and then Randy Johnson will get there (though Johnson isn't a lock) but I don't think Pedro, Shilling, Wells, Smoltz, Moyer, Kenny Rogers or Mussina have a realistic shot at it.

And beyond that, do you see any other younger guys who are well on their way, especially in this day and age when 20-game winners seem to be tougher to come by?
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Moose is a long shot, if he plays long enough. Who knows how long Johnson will last, but I don't think he'll get it.

That said, predicting the future of young pitchers is a bigger risk than the lottery. I'd say Mulder or Zito both have a chance. Santana's not out of the realm of possibility. Felix Hernandez has the talent. Who knows? You've got to be really good, really healthy and kind of lucky for a long time.

Nobody's "well on their way," but these things always seem to happen in bunches. In 2003-07, you've got Clemens, Maddux and Glavine (possibly Johnson.) Around 1989-92, you had Ryan make it and Blyleven and John come close. Around 1982-85, you had Seaver, Niekro, Sutton and Perry all reaching 300 within a few years and Fergie Jenkins coming close. Around 1962-66, you've got Early Wynn and Warren Spahn reaching 300 and Robin Roberts coming close. That's half the list right there.

I expect we'll see another 2-5 pitchers approaching 250-300 wins in 10-15 years, and at that point it's a crapshoot

The other twelve 300-game winners came before/during WWI, except for Grove. So it's almost fair to say that we're in a renaissance of 300-game winners in the last two decades, considering we only saw three pitchers reach that mark between the Dead Ball Era and the Disco Era.

zagoshe · May 31, 2007

broadway joe said:

zagoshe said:

lantaur said:

zagoshe said:

Well let me follow up with this -- why is it Cy Young could win 500 games and pitchers once upon a time -- before technology and weight training and conditioning was so advanced -- would go complete games and throw incredible amounts of innings without getting hurt -- but pitchers today break down more, have lower pitch counts and seemingly less endurance and the 300-win pitcher seems to be extinct?

I just can't figure it out.
Click to expand...

I once heard someone - can't remember who - say that pitchers today are being trained to be relievers or work in a five-man rotation. Back "in the day" arm strength was built up by pitching all the time.

Plus, it helped being able to scuff a baseball. Or use a baseball that was partly lopsided and darkened, since they didn't put a new pitch in every batter. Also, I think pitchers let up a lot when they had big leads to conserve their arm.

What else? I'd say most pitchers threw a fastball, changeup and curve. Not too many speciality pitches back in the day (yes, I know Mathewson threw a screwball (fadeaway), Cicotte and others had a knuckleball, etc.).
Click to expand...

The reason I asked is because I had this argument with a Little League coach who told me his 11-year old was the ace of his staff and that he was already throwing mean curve balls. I told him he was probably ruining the kid's arm and he was putting undo strain on it and by letting him throw curves he isn't developing arm strength.

He didn't want to hear it but I've talked to old timers who told me a big problem is kids today are throwing too many junk pitches before their arm is developed enough to really handle that kind of strain.
Click to expand...

If you know a coach who has his 11-year-old throwing curveballs, kick him in the nuts. Repeatedly.
Click to expand...

That's not a bad strategy, but he is the coach of my son's team so I try and be respectful about it because I don't want to be "that fucking parent" if you know what I mean. My son plays first base, he has a ball, he gets to play the entire game -- I have no complaints but I did have a mild confrontation early on when my son -- who has pitched before -- was being targeted as one of the pitchers of the team and I stepped in, mostly because I didn't want him being forced to throw junk pitches yet.

zagoshe · May 31, 2007

buckweaver said:

zagoshe said:

What I meant by the 300-winner becoming almost extinct is -- let's look at the guys with more than 200 wins -- I think Glavine and then Randy Johnson will get there (though Johnson isn't a lock) but I don't think Pedro, Shilling, Wells, Smoltz, Moyer, Kenny Rogers or Mussina have a realistic shot at it.

And beyond that, do you see any other younger guys who are well on their way, especially in this day and age when 20-game winners seem to be tougher to come by?
Click to expand...

Moose is a long shot, if he plays long enough. Who knows how long Johnson will last, but I don't think he'll get it.

That said, predicting the future of young pitchers is a bigger risk than the lottery. I'd say Mulder or Zito both have a chance. Santana's not out of the realm of possibility. Felix Hernandez has the talent. Who knows? You've got to be really good, really healthy and kind of lucky for a long time.

Nobody's "well on their way," but these things always seem to happen in bunches. In 2003-07, you've got Clemens, Maddux and Glavine (possibly Johnson.) Around 1989-92, you had Ryan make it and Blyleven and John come close. Around 1982-85, you had Seaver, Niekro, Sutton and Perry all reaching 300 within a few years and Fergie Jenkins coming close. Around 1962-66, you've got Early Wynn and Warren Spahn reaching 300 and Robin Roberts coming close. That's half the list right there.

I expect we'll see another 2-5 pitchers approaching 250-300 wins in 10-15 years, and at that point it's a crapshoot

The other twelve 300-game winners came before/during WWI, except for Grove. So it's almost fair to say that we're in a renaissance of 300-game winners in the last two decades, considering we only saw three pitchers reach that mark between the Dead Ball Era and the Disco Era.
Click to expand...

I didn't realize only 22 guys have done it. Wow, that is an exclusive club and we've indeed been blessed to see a few of these guys.

Guy_Incognito · May 31, 2007

Mulder?

JackyJackBN · May 31, 2007

Quote from: JackyJackBN on May 30, 2007, 08:17:12 PM
Re Haren, how's his arm holding up? He blew the M's away, in April, then had to sit for a while, no?

Maybe you're thinking of Rich Harden, not Dan Haren.
***

Harden-Haren-Harang, Holy Hell! (Of course you're right, oop.)

That Weaver/Hernandez matchup sure turned to mush early. If you can believe the FOXbox, some serious one-way squeezing of Felix was going on throughout his stint. Johjima's framing? Movement on the pitches? Defective FOXbox? Surely it couldn't have been Ed Montague.

lantaur · May 31, 2007

Regarding kids throwing curveballs - just show them the Real Sports segment they did on that, with kids undergoing surgery because they're throwing curves. Ridiculous.

Hell, just ask Trevor Hoffman. If I recall, he didn't throw a curve until he was out of high school and he never went on the DL until last season, I believe.

I have one son who has natural athletic ability. He's quite young now, but I'm still putting it into his head that people should throw curveballs when they are young.

Angola! · May 31, 2007

Holy shit. The Yankees gained a game on the Red Sox. The Apocalypse is upon us.

Oz · May 31, 2007

Angola! said:

Holy shit. The Yankees gained a game on the Red Sox. The Apocalypse is upon us.
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Nah, not with A-Rod bringing back memories of Bronson Arroyo with his play tonight.

pallister · May 31, 2007

That was a strange first post.

Simon_Cowbell · May 31, 2007

buckweaver said:

zagoshe said:

Buck -- What is the most important stat in gauging how effective a pitcher is?
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It doesn't exist. There is no one stat, for hitters, pitchers, fielders, managers, or anybody, that is "most important," because they all tell you different things.

I could say ERA, and you could tell me that Nolan Ryan was pretty effective in 1987 and that it wasn't his fault that his team couldn't score any runs for him when he gave up fewer than 3 per game. But he still went 8-16, no matter how effective he was.

I could say WHIP, and you might agree that pretty much every one of the "most effective" pitchers in the league has a pretty good WHIP. But then there's Earl Whitehill, who won 218 games but had a career WHIP of 1.50.

Livan Hernandez eats up innings better than anyone currently in the league, which makes him pretty effective to a manager with a weak rotation and a thin bullpen. But he's not any more than a slightly above-average pitcher by any other measure, so how useful would he be to the Mets in October instead of Arizona in May? It's hard to say.

Different pitchers fill different roles on different teams, and you can't judge their "effectiveness" without understanding their roles.

The Braves, for instance, are probably as much satisfied with the effectiveness of Chuck James in 2007 as they are with the effectiveness of John Smoltz, even though Smoltz is by far the better pitcher. But James is being asked to do something different, and so the team's expectations for "effectiveness" are different.

It's hard to judge their stats the same when their roles are so different. That's why there's no one-size-fits-all number that can determine who is "most effective." Every stat has to have context, or else you're in danger of coming to some pretty wacky conclusions.

For instance, Kerry Wood is the second-most dominant strikeout pitcher in baseball history, according to his career K/9 ... but we all know better, don't we? ;D
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There is always a MOST important stat. The degree can be argued, sure.

1. ERA
2. WHP
3. K
4. IP

Simon_Cowbell · May 31, 2007

buckweaver said:

zagoshe said:

Buck -- What is the most important stat in gauging how effective a pitcher is?
Click to expand...

I could say ERA, and you could tell me that Nolan Ryan was pretty effective in 1987 and that it wasn't his fault that his team couldn't score any runs for him when he gave up fewer than 3 per game. But he still went 8-16, no matter how effective he was.
Click to expand...

So fucking stale.

If you give up 2.6 runs a game and pitch into the 8th inning, you are fucking great.

Now, read this slowly, A pitcher has NO control over how many runs his team will score.

Any writer who didn't vote for Ryan for Cy that year because of the OFFENSE-DETERMINED win total should have lost privileges.

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Running MLB Thread, Part the Fourth, 2007

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