Running North Korea freakout thread

I'm in the midst of moving across the country so not much time to weigh in, or even read the coverage thoroughly. But a few quick things that concern me:

– My gut is that Kim is trying to flip the dynamic in a way that he might reasonably think has little downside for him. Trump has been so nakedly desirous of having this summit – no matter his protestations about how willing he is to "walk away" – that he's gotten over his skis and Kim feels he has some leverage. Put aside all the "Nobel" chants at his rallies (though Trump won't). Lately he's been using his "I've set up an historic summit with Kim where all my predecessors failed" card in multiple scenarios. When he got out of the Iran deal, he pivoted in the same press conference to his NK "reveals." Plus Rudy and his Fox supporters are using the fact that he's super-busy with dominating NK as to why he doesn't have time to sit down with Mueller. Then this week with the Israeli embassy, it was all "When Trump makes a promise, he delivers." For him not to deliver on this promised and long-hyped (by him) summit would be a loss of face, even for a guy who often seems to be literally shameless.

– This might lead Trump and his team to dial back the pre-summit rhetoric and its expectations. There was always almost zero chance of Kim actually denuclearizing, no matter what he might say at the summit. This way Kim can put the Trumpies back on their heels. Then if he does agree (or seem to agree) to starting denuclearization at the summit, he can trade that for more than he could have 24 hours ago, while looking almost magnanimous in the process. It moves the starting line of the negotiations (should they still happen) in Kim's direction. Kim knows how badly Trump wants a "W" here, so he can ask for the world. In short, I think Kim is significantly outmaneuvering Trump.

– One thing that worries me is that now Bolton and Pompeo (especially Bolton) can get in Trump's ear and say, "See? I told you they're a bunch of lying liars. Screw Kim, let's say we're going to the summit and then execute our 'bloody nose' bombing raid the night before we were supposed to meet. He'll never see it coming, and you'll look like one of those strongmen you admire so much." I think that's low-odds, but more than zero. But regardless, this strengthens Bolton's position, which he has never made any bones about, that NK will never honestly negotiate and thus must be met with the only language they understand – force.

 

North Korea clashed with Bolton when he worked under the Bush administration, calling him "human scum" and a "bloodsucker".

"We shed light on the quality of Bolton already in the past, and we do not hide our feeling of repugnance towards him," vice minister Kim said.

*

That is a great quote.

 

Between Paris, the TPP and Iran, the Trump administration has given the world the epiphany that they don't need the U.S. for successful international relations. Treaties that the U.S. is not a part of - and, in fact, opposes - can be viable. And the North Korea debacle further suggests that the current U.S. is not only ancillary to international relations, but an obstacle to successful diplomacy.

We're no longer the only superpower. We're just the asshole with the biggest stick.

 

I think NK is very unlikely to be taken by surprise by anything since their distrust of the US is so high.

 

The US having just unilaterally pulled out of a nuclear treaty, why would North Korea trust anything put forward by the same people?

 

"Hey, do ever think in about 45 years something like this will happen again, but the people involved will be way dumber?"

 

My best guess is this is North Korea trying to drive a wedge between the United States and the South.

"Dear South Korea:

We can end our war and have peace on the peninsula. .... but you're going to need to distance yourself from the United States, first."

They've now directly tied the prospect of peace talks going forward to the South being less cooperative with the U.S.

 

Define what this would look like.

 

And to think he's already promised to turn the prize money over to Michael Cohen as part of his hooker hush-money repayment plan. <Sad trombone>

 

I thought I was pretty clear ... is the North saying to the South: "You want peace? OK ... but we're going to need less United States on our border."

 

Which treaty was that?

 

Iran deal: A treaty or not? - CNNPolitics