Running North Korea freakout thread

Hopefully this won’t stand in the way of Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize.

 

Noble Piss Prize?

 

War game simulation time!

Opinion | Think Military Strikes Could Stop North Korea? Try It and See.

 

Worst. Choose Your Own Adventure Book. Ever.

 

So it's almost here! The Summit starts at 9pmET tonight (which is 9am Tuesday Singapore time). A few thoughts:

– I am not at all a fan of Trump meeting Kim alone at first, with just translators. Big mistake. I presume Trump demanded and he has increasingly refused to listen to advice. But this genuinely concerns me. Remember, this is the "DO NOT CONGRATULATE" guy. [EDIT: I hadn't realized that the first 1-2 hours was all supposed to be one-on-one; I thought it was like 10-15 minutes solo. Danger, Will Robinson!]

– Here's what I think both men most want:

Trump—The ability to declare a "W" while looking tough. As I (and others) have written before, he's hyped this summit relentlessly, and he fancies himself not just the consummate dealmaker (despite no major deals to point to) but also the great promise-keeper. Which is another reason I deeply dislike the idea of him spending any time with Kim alone because he is primed to give up the farm, particularly if his "touch" and "feel" tell him to.

Kim—Get near-term sanctions relief while keeping his nuclear capability/program.

– NK has shown an ability to play the Trump game. For instance, bringing that giant envelope to the WH, because they know that goofy bastard Trump loves pretending he's on a TV game show. Brilliant theater. I do think they were genuinely surprised when the Pence insult caused Trump to temporarily walk away, given that the earlier Bolton insult on the same topic (the "Libya model") led to Trump sidelining Bolton, where he has remained. But it's back on without NK conceding anything, so if I'm Kim, I think no harm, no foul. But it's a reminder to them that Trump can be erratic, albeit generally without teeth—but if he does bite, he does have a military locked and loaded.

– I think Kim is willing to allow Trump to declare a W provided he gets near-term sanctions relief. In exchange, I think he'll say at least some of the right things about eventually denuclearizing. He'll want the first step or steps to take place over a longish period and figure out ways he can chisel. Just as when they blew up their testing facility, they let in foreign press, but specifically did not let in testing experts who might be able to tell if they were just doing it for show. I guarantee you they've prepared by figuring out "concessions" to propose where they've installed trap doors. Then they'll hope Trump shushes his advisors and agrees, kind of like Kramer accepting the lifetime of free coffee as a settlement before hearing the rest of the offer, to Jackie Chiles' chagrin.

– I don't think Kim will ever give up his nuclear capability. It's already working just as he hoped – it's led the U.S. president to treat him as an equal. However I think he might feign a willingness to do so.

– Ultimately, I suspect Kim feels he can wait Trump out. The Kims have been there for 70 years, while Trump might not be here past 2020. So Kim can make a deal that gets him some instant relief while his concessions can play out slowly through at least 2020, then size up the new guy/gal. From Kim's perspective, there's no rational reason for him to think Trump will live up to his end of any deal anyway. So why would he? And that's putting aside for a second that NK has repeatedly made deals over decades and then failed to live up to them.

– Overall, my guess is that there will be a fairly historic agreement this week, or at least something that sounds pretty impressive. And that that will lower the near-term temp on the Korean Peninsula, which is good. However given that neither side has any history of living up to agreements, that ultimately it will end up being fairly worthless. My fear is that in a year, we might be worse off. But I do think Kim will likely try to wait Trump's term out; he'll lay low-ish until he sees what happens in 2020. JMO.

– If Trump really wants to make a big deal, and given his purely transactional, America-first-and-screw-our-allies approach, there is one option I've read that could conceivably be in play: Kim might agree to give up his long-range ballistic missiles (i.e. the ones that could hit the U.S. mainland) while keeping the shorter-range ones that have South Korea and Japan blanketed. I could see that really appealing to Trump. But here's who won't like it: South Korea, Japan, and China. It could lead the first two to start their own nuke programs, which we know won't faze Trump since he suggested just that during the campaign. But that would longer-term be bad news in Asia, and also for the U.S. given our alliances with South Korea and Japan, which a future President will have to honor even if Trump might not. Not to mention the tens of thousands of American troops and citizens that would remain in harm's way. This is something to watch for.

– If it was just up to Trump, frankly, IMO he'd be fine completely abandoning the Korean peninsula. Look for Kim to work that as best he can. Maybe pitch that, have Trump reach to grab it, have Trump's seconds try to reel him in while Kim appears to "give in," and Kim has thereby shifted the "center line" in his direction. [And again, here's where Trump being alone with a much better prepared Kim is a concern to me; by the time Pompeo and company come on, the center line could have significantly shifted in Kim's favor.] The U.S. has always tried to make the starting point CVID: complete, verifiable, and irreversible dismantlement. In fact they were until recently making that the starting point BEFORE talks, but obviously Trump dropped that. I suspect Kim will try to stake out something dramatic in the other direction, i.e. the U.S. military largely getting out of South Korea. While that would be a non-starter to pretty much any U.S. official, there's one who doesn't care all that much about it because it doesn't affect his day-to-day life or political fortunes—and unfortunately he happens to be President. And will be alone.

Let's get it on!

 

Why do you hate America @Pete? Do you intend to undermine our President?

 

This would cost American jobs and military capability, so I hope Trump understands it's a non-starter, too.

 

To be clear, I don't think Trump will/would actually agree to that, but that Kim might toss it out there to move the middle ground in his preferred direction, and Trump might allow that to happen because it's something he doesn't emotionally care about and thus might not instantly fight it hard.

 

On the contrary, I'm proud to be an American, where at least I know I'm free. And I won't forget the men who died, who gave that right to me.

 

lol

 

Oh me, of little faith.


The bottom line is the only acceptable outcome America has been willing to accept is a nuke-free North Korea. I'm skeptical that Kim would grant that concession.

Therefore: This summit is going to either be a great big nothing, or Donald Trump giving away the farm. I'm happy to be proven wrong ....

 

I hope we get the USS Pueblo back. It’s been 50 years.