Running North Korea freakout thread

I'm glad that we've been able to keep this thread alive, because IMO it's a very important topic. Here are a few thoughts I have:

– Kim's entire thesis (and his dad's) in pursuing nuclear weapons is that once NK acquired functioning nukes—and they already have—it would force the U.S. to treat them as an equal. Thus the Singapore summit was a crowning victory for him. It's no secret why NK state TV aired pretty much the whole day live, which they simply do not do. Trump gave Kim exactly what the Kims have most dearly sought for decades. Now, if your belief is that Trump (or any U.S. president) is willing to meet/treat as equals only because NK has functioning nukes, then why on Earth would you dismantle said nukes? (Narrator: You wouldn't.)

– As all have discussed, NK agreed to virtually nothing concrete at the summit. Indeed, they have agreed in the past to much more specific terms, including IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) inspections and joining the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Of course, they failed to live up to those terms. I appreciate Vombatus' appeal to history, but IMO the history shows that the Singapore summit was far from a breakthrough in historic terms, and indeed was far less than NK has agreed to in the past.

– NK did seem to make two concessions – to return remains of American soldiers from 65+ years ago, and to destroy a missile facility. Trump spoke as if those were done deals while patting himself on the back. But they are not. Clearly NK wants something more, likely increased sanction relief and/or investment, before taking even those very modest steps, which of course don't do anything to dismantle their already functioning/active nukes.

– There has been discussion of what the U.S. "gave up" at the summit. IMO the most important thing it gave up was the effectiveness of the one stick that this admin has in fact used quite well—"maximum pressure" economic sanctions. The Trump admin did a better job than Obama and some past admins in getting China (especially) and Russia to help more on the sanctions front, because NK sanctions are fairly toothless without China. But Trump came out of the summit saying that it was such a huge success that, literally before Trump even met the media, China said it was time to start lifting sanctions. Then Trump tweets that NK is no longer a nuclear threat, so problem solved. Thus the air is completely out of the balloon of the maximum pressure campaign, which was our best leverage. We now have almost no leverage except the kind that comes with booms.

– My biggest near-term fear is one that was expressed earlier this week by George Will, and maybe elsewhere. If Trump eventually realizes that he's being played as a chump by Kim, he may lash out because of wounded vanity. And that lashing out could well be the "bloody nose" limited strike, which as we've discussed at the start of the thread, could get out of control in a hurry. Trump is a counter-puncher who, when he feels he's been attacked, vows to come back bigger and badder and dirtier. It doesn't matter whether it's Meryl Streep or Kim; if he feels he's been personally insulted or made to look weak, he will come out firing with both barrels. Unfortunately that will likely be more literal with Kim than Meryl.

– Trump has so much invested both politically and emotionally in his current narrative that he's "solved" the NK problem—even tweeting that Obama was very close to nuclear war with NK until thank God Trump rode in on the white horse—that he will reject all sorts of evidence to the contrary. Indeed, he's already been doing that; witness the zero public reaction from him or anyone in his administration about the NBC story that, if anything, NK is ramping up its nuke program. And that's why even in NK's harsh statement this week they went out of their way to praise Trump and essentially say they're only mad at his lackeys, not him. Trump eats that stuff up, and NK has largely been able to sideline Bolton through that strategy.

– But if Kim keeps pushing and Trump wises up—if that dam bursts—watch out. So while I like the reduced temps in the region that the summit unquestionably helped bring about much more than where we were in the depths of the "fire and fury" and "rocket man" and "don't bother with diplomacy, Rex" days, I am very concerned about a potential boomerang effect that could leave us in more danger than before Singapore. Everything has been ratcheted up. I think Vombatus makes an excellent point in saying that actually achieving real progress on this front will be a long and painstaking progress that will require great strategic patience. But I think he significantly discounts the fact that this President is extremely ill-suited for that sort of task. Trump's unpredictability definitely helped bring about the summit and with it at least the opportunity for a different and better way forward. So, great, and credit due. But his handling of the summit itself and its aftermath has me very concerned.

 

went bankrupt running a casino.

 

Pete, great post. Thanks for sharing your views. I share a lot of your concerns.

When we struck Syria a few months ago, and a certain dipshit tweeted about it IN ADVANCE, I was having convulsions. WTF. And then to find out the UK and France were both in on it, and had to deal with that tip off. JFC.

Time will tell. Hopefully something good will come from it all, and then it will continue over to the next Administration.

Regards,
VB

 

Hope not!

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Fresh off the Twitter presses. Here's one major frustration to me: Trump mischaracterizes what was agreed to in Singapore at the most basic level. Trump here says they agreed to "the denuclearization of North Korea." Wrong. The agreement (and it certainly wasn't a "contract," but let's put that aside for now) was to "work toward the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," which is very different.

When NK uses that term, they also mean the U.S. removing South Korea from its "nuclear umbrella" of being willing (at least theoretically) to use nukes in defense of South Korea. In practical terms that likely also means the U.S. greatly reducing its physical military presence in South Korea.

What Trump is saying is that they agreed to is North Korea denuclearizing, period, without the U.S. making similar concessions to get out of South Korea (or other concessions in a tit-for-tat). But Kim has never agreed to that.

I'm genuinely uncertain as to whether Trump is legitimately ignorant of what was agreed to, or the crucial difference between de-nuking North Korea and de-nuking the Korean Peninsula, as North Korea understands that term; or if he knows, but is deliberately mischaracterizing it. I'm also not sure which is worse.

But how can real progress be made when Trump and Kim can have this historic summit but, even weeks afterward, not even agree on the literal meaning of the most basic and essential of terms?

 

The Art of the Deal strikes again. Way to go, Fucko!

 

maybe Trump can sue him

 

Or refuse to pay.

 

The other stuff is the other stuff - I think everyone can agree this is a good thing.
North Korea returns US war remains

Glad the families will have some closure.