Running Primaries Thread

I like this one:

“She has consistently shown an electoral resiliency in difficult situations that have made her a winner,” Mr. Penn said. “Senator Obama has in fact never had a serious Republican challenger.”

Using this logic, should we presume an 8-8 team is going to win the Super Bowl simply because it's played more close games than the team with the best record?

 

I tend to agree. Ohio and Pennsylvania seem like the key to the nomination.

 

Huh? She's never run in a race in which she was in any jeopardy whatsoever -- until now.

We'll see all about her so-called grace under pressure.

 

I wish I could find the exact quote, but Hillary pulled one from the Republican playbook in describing the caucuses.

Republicans describe liberal judges that don't rule the way they want as "activist judges"

Hillary shrugged off her caucus losses saying something to the effect of that the caucuses don't matter because they're attended primarily by the activists in the party.


Maybe it's just me.. but I thought you wanted those activists supporting you because if they'll come out to caucus they'll come out to vote in a general election.

 

If either the DNC hands the Michigan and Florida delegates to Hillary or the superdelegates all wind up in her camp through a backroom deal and Obama is denied the nomination Clinton will get destroyed in the general election.

I still think she's going to find a way to steal the nomination from Obama.

 

I'm not seeing this Clinton "resiliency." She won New Hampshire. I guess that's where it's coming from. She didn't bounce back to prevail on Super Tuesday. She held on for dear life because Obama didn't have time to campaign for more than an hour in most of those states.

The longer this race goes, the worse her results get. I don't see that as a positive. She needs to win Virginia or Wisconsin. Not be within 10 points. Actually win. Otherwise, she has no electability claim.

 

"We're counting on Florida" -- Rudy Giuliani
"We're counting on Texas" -- Hillary

 

I honestly don't think the Clinton campaign thought there would still be a race right now.

Texas and Ohio will be important, but as someone here already mentioned, she's facing a steep road if she needs to make up delegates there. The arcane rules in Texas, in particular, will probably lead to a fairly even split of delegates. It really can't be a firewall for anyone under the current rules.

That leaves her, assuming things continue on their current path (which is by no means in the bag), needing huge blowouts in Ohio and then, probably, Pennsylvania, to come back.

After today, Obama will likely lead in total delegates, even factoring in HRC's lead among superdelegates. He already leads among pledged delegates.

 

Even though some of the Texas' leading Hispanic politicians have endorsed Obama? And after she fired her Hispanic campaign manager?

 

If Texas/Ohio split and Obama has a big February, Clinton will face pressure to quit. Pennsylvania is six weeks after the March 4 primaries. Prolonging the campaign for that long when proportional representation prevents a big win is a waste of time.

Clinton needs to pick up a win in February and sweep Texas and Ohio. Otherwise, I think the superdelegates flood toward Obama to get her out.

 

I can't see Hillary getting out period, at least not quietly. She's considered herself destined to be this country's first female president from the moment she got into politics herself, and she knows this will be her only shot to do so (she'll be 65 when the 2012 election rolls around). If this date with destiny eludes her, I have a feeling she's going to (or at least try to) take Obama down with her.

 

Pretty much agree.

The most underreported and, frankly, wrongly reported story of the past week is the margins.

Combine the four states and a territory up for grabs last week, and there were a ton of delegates up for grabs, and Obama won in blowouts -- his lowest margin was, what, 19 points? Via proportional allocation, that meant he won considerable delegates. There are another good chunk up for grabs today.

HRC's getting backed into a corner where she'll not only have to win Ohio and Texas, but win them huge, to make up the difference.

If it weren't Hillary Clinton, the coverage would be more dismissive. But the pundit class buried her once already -- and McCain before her -- and was wrong both times, and is wary of being wrong again.