Running Primaries Thread

Your morning, "Holy Shit, He Can Do It" moment.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/13/bill-clinton-campaign-chi_n_86432.html

 

Wow.

 

Barack won the Democratic nomination last night.

To wit..

On Tuesday, Obama won Virginia, Maryland and Washington D.C. by 2 to 1 and 3 to 1 margins increasing his pledged delegate lead to 1,017 to 942 according to MSNBC. Including so called "super delegates" Obama now leads 1,223 to 1,161 according to CNN.
Barack Obama has now won 14 states with more than 60% of the vote while only losing one state with 40% or less. With a system of proportional representation, a Democratic candidate only picks up substantial delegate victories with a win over 60%. A 55% to 45% win in a Democratic primary generally leads to a very slight delegate edge. This explains why Senator Clinton did not garner more delegates from her big Super Tuesday wins in New York, California and Massachusetts.
If Senator Obama wins Wisconsin and Hawaii next week, as is expected, Clinton will have to win 60% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination. Senator Clinton's largest wins thus far have been in California with 52%, in Massachusetts with 56% and her home state of New York with 57% of the vote. It is difficult to imagine a scenario where Senator Clinton wins 60% of the vote in every remaining primary and caucus when she hasn't done it in any state yet including her home state of New York.
It is clear that Senator Obama has "broken away" with his Potomac Primary wins which included a 63% to 36% win in Virginia that mirrors his win in Illinois of 65% to 35%. Obama has closed the gap in every demographic group winning African Americans 90% to 10%, Latinos 55% to 45%, white Catholics 54% to 46% and union household 56% to 44%.
Hillary Clinton won just 1 of 11 congressional districts in Virginia. This trend appears to have begun in Washington State last weekend where Senator Clinton did not win a single county.
Clinton campaign advisors now admit that it is highly unlikely that they can win the pledged delegate count and are organizing for a super delegate campaign that stretches into the Democratic Convention in Denver this August.
Obama now leads in every possible delegate count, has won the most states and is winning the popular vote by a wide margin. The Clinton campaign's only remaining strategy is to have "super delegates" decide the election against the will of Democratic voters. Leading Democratic strategist, Donna Brazille has announced that she will leave the Democratic Party if "super delegates" end up deciding the election.
Let's hope it doesn't come to that.

 

buttsecks?

 

It's been the worst kept secret in politics that a lot of the respected members of Bill's administration prefer Obama.

 

The thing about McCain "running with the nomination" is, how different would his lead be if there weren't so many Winner Take All states for the GOP? I don't have an answer, but I am genuinely curious if anyone has a ballpark estimate of the delegate break down were the GOP system more like the Democratic.

 

Including Bill himself, I have no doubt.

 

That's a good question. Seeing as how he's won 35-40 percent of the votes in the state he's won, things would look a lot different.

Another observations: Man is Huckabee mucking things up or what? Denies Romney a big chunk of votes, and now he's being a pain in the side for McCain. When it comes to the religious right, Reap what ye shall sow - suckers!.

 

Brazile denied saying that on one of the Sunday panel discussions. She acknowledged she'd resign from her current position -- but not from the Party.

 

That's a great "what if?" type of question. The only reason Huckabee is hanging around right now, in my opinion, is to become the face of the social conservative movement, a movement that has no logical leader right now with Falwell's death and Robertson's irrelevance due to old age. Huckabee fills the vacuum, and because of his easy-going manner, is more palatable for non-social conservatives to boot.

He has no chance to win the nomination, but in the Democrat system? He'd be Obama-right as of now.

 

Honest question, OTR ... how do you think Obama resonates in Indiana? I think McCain would win out, but not by much, and I'd give Obama a puncher's chance of actually taking Indiana.

Then I'm going cash all of my assets for the impending apocalypse.

 

Not really, because he'd probably be behind or neck in neck with Romney, who wouldn't have dropped out.