Running Primaries Thread

Ben_Hecht · Feb 13, 2008

Fenian_Bastard said:

Ben_Hecht said:

Yep, but he figured to win those -- perhaps by not as much.

Mo's the key, now. If HRC can stop the slide, she still has tangible shot.

But if they split Florida and Ohio, think it's over.
Click to expand...

Texas and Ohio?
Click to expand...

Texas and Ohio.

If it comes down to Florida, it isn't going to be pretty.

Ben_Hecht · Feb 13, 2008

OnTheRiver said:

Bubbler said:

Honest question, OTR ... how do you think Obama resonates in Indiana? I think McCain would win out, but not by much, and I'd give Obama a puncher's chance of actually taking Indiana.

Then I'm going cash all of my assets for the impending apocalypse.
Click to expand...

I think McCain takes the state 55-45.

I would've given Obama a shot in the early 1990s, when the coal miners' unions still pulled a ton of weight in the south and there was more organized labor activity in the north.

Now? Indiana's such a conservative state that even its Democrats come off Republican. (Think Ellsworth). It's not a state where dramatic change is so warmly received.

If Bill Clinton couldn't win Indiana in the atmosphere of the 1990s, Obama doesn't have a shot.
Click to expand...

And we're not going to get near French Lick, fresh Egyptian-cotton sheeting and other fun summer apparel.

Kumbaya.

markvid · Feb 13, 2008

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/Blaming_the_weather.html
Even Mother Nature conspires against Hillary.

DanOregon · Feb 13, 2008

I was willing to give Clinton the benefit of the doubt since the mess they made in Nevada, but her comments about Michigan (other candidates could have kept their name on the ballots) make me think she might be losing friends in the DNC.
Her best bet would be to get into a position where she could claim to have enough superdelegates to take the nomination, but in the interest of unity and for the good of the nation, but would them to support whomever earns the most delegates in the primary.

Ben_Hecht · Feb 13, 2008

markvid said:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/Blaming_the_weather.html
Even Mother Nature conspires against Hillary.
Click to expand...

"Noooooooooo . . . "

"It can't be meeeeeeeeeeeeeee . . . "

Penn's just doing what he's told. A willing tool, in service to the Cause.

jagtrader · Feb 13, 2008

Even if Clinton wins Texas and Ohio by 10 points, she'll be 100 delegates behind with six weeks to go until Pennsylvania. There will still be pressure for her to quit because the party wants a winner. Dragging it out for six more weeks when she still can't take the lead won't appeal to the masses.

Trouser_Buddah · Feb 13, 2008

markvid said:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/Blaming_the_weather.html
Even Mother Nature conspires against Hillary.
Click to expand...

Old Man Winter is a known misogynist...

STLIrish · Feb 13, 2008

That AP story was just devastating.
But, yeah, every party insider the Clintons pissed off, sold out or leaned on once too often in eight years now has their chance for payback.

zeke12 · Feb 13, 2008

"Two Cabinet positions wasn't enough?"

That's too good not to be true.

Ben_Hecht · Feb 13, 2008

Zeke12 said:

"Two Cabinet positions wasn't enough?"

That's too good not to be true.
Click to expand...

It do sound like something that Bill The Red-Nosed Reindeer would say.

He can make hundreds of millions as a private fixer in the years to come. What's his problem (well, we know the answer to that . . . )

TrooperBari · Feb 13, 2008

More ZekePorn:

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/02/of-insurmountable-leads.php

The short answer is yes, Obama's lead in pledged delegates is now effectively insurmountable. One reason this very plain fact has been obscured is the way that networks have been counting pledged delegates - with a surfeit of caution, so that they won't have to retract their counts. Most years, that makes a lot of sense. This year, it's had the perverse effect of distorting the picture; we know within a few delegates what Obama's actual lead must be, but because we can't pin it down precisely in a bunch of states, the networks haven't been citing it. CBS, the best of the bunch, puts the current pledged delegate lead at 142, but that's a little high. (My best guess is that he'll emerge from tonight with a lead of around 44 more than he had, so his campaign will likely claim a lead of about 131).

Looking ahead at the remaining contests, we find that there are 1,075 pledged delegates yet to be awarded. To tie Obama, Hillary would have to win about 603 of them, or roughly 56%. But her task is actually a little steeper than that - current polls show her trailing in Hawaii, Wisconsin, and North Carolina. Let's award those states to Obama by a modest 55-45 margin, less than the polls predict. Now there are just 866 delegates up for grabs, Obama's lead is up to 152, and Hillary has to win 59% of the remaining delegates to tie him. But it's worse than it sounds. Even winning 60% of the popular vote the rest of the way won't do the trick, because of Obama's strength in majority-black districts. To win 59% of the delegates, she's got to take every state but the three named above (NC, HI, WI) by an average margin of better than 60-40. That includes contests like Texas, with its hybrid caucus-primary, and also states like Mississippi, Oregon, South Dakota and Wyoming. Can this happen? Not bloody likely. She'll be lucky, frankly, to win more than a few states outright - the remaining calendar is not terribly favorable.
Click to expand...

His follow-up comment is also worth reading:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/02/of-insurmountable-leads.php#comment-2599755

zeke12 · Feb 13, 2008

TrooperBari said:

More ZekePorn:
Click to expand...

I love that this is catching on.

Zeke also likes the normal, run-of-the-mill fisting magazine now and then as well, mind you...

Log in or Sign up

Running Primaries Thread

Ben_Hecht Active Member

Ben_Hecht Active Member

markvid Guest

DanOregon Well-Known Member

Ben_Hecht Active Member

jagtrader Active Member

Trouser_Buddah Active Member

STLIrish Active Member

zeke12 Guest

Ben_Hecht Active Member

TrooperBari Well-Known Member

zeke12 Guest

Share This Page

Log in or Sign up

Running Primaries Thread

Ben_Hecht Active Member

Ben_Hecht Active Member

markvid Guest

DanOregon Well-Known Member

Ben_Hecht Active Member

jagtrader Active Member

Trouser_Buddah Active Member

STLIrish Active Member

zeke12 Guest

Ben_Hecht Active Member

TrooperBari Well-Known Member

zeke12 Guest

Share This Page

Useful Searches