Running Primaries Thread

Absolutely ... atrocious. Wow.

 

I want my Hillary power towel!

 

Sadly, that power towel clip was far less embarrassing than this!

 

Wisconsin poll is little close for comfort for the Big O.

Obama 47%
Clinton 42%
Undecided 11%

Margin of error = 5%

A statistical tie.

 

Would want it wider, yes, but that 4-5 % has been holding steadily, which
increases one's confidence in its validity.

Just waiting for the dirty-trick unveiling, today or tomorrow, from the They Owe Mes.

 

The polls in neighboring Minnesota showed Clinton with a big lead up until the actual caucus (which is called a caucus but is actually a primary), when Obama won big.

http://www.pollster.com/08-MN-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

Last poll had Clinton 40, Obama 33

Obama won 67-33.

I'd guess that the polls in Wisconsin are drastically underestimating his support because they undersample 1.) Young people without landlines and 2.) Independents and cross-over voters who don't fit into a "likely voter" profile.

I suspect both camps have internals showing such, and that's why HRC canceled events in Wisconsin on Monday and is pulling out of there. The weather could still be a problem, but the way I read the tea leaves, if Obama's ground folks GOTV -- especially in Madison and Milwaukee -- this is his to lose. My guess is something like Obama 55, Clinton 44.

But I've been wrong before.

EDIT: Here's the article talking about the Clinton camp pulling out early.
http://www.jsonline.com/watch/?watch=1&date=2/16/2008&id=35716

 

Bump.

 

McCain wins Wisc.; Dems too close to call -- NBC

 

McCain seems like they woke him up to read this speech.

 

Wisconsin exit polls have female 57%, male 43% on the Dems side.

 

Exit polls also show Obama strong among women. MSNBC is saying they think Obama will win substantially.

 

NY Times has Obama up 61-38, though that's with 0% reporting.

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/votes/index.html