Running Primaries Thread

Pennsy and WVa are HRC locks.

Latest poll has BO by a clearcut margin in North Carolina. Believe that to be a valid read.

I've heard guesses all over the map on Kentucky. I think it's HRC's, as the
western portion of the state is a dream for Clinton, as well as I believe he'll do in Louisville.

 

It seems like if Obama can make Pa. more of a Texas-like margin, that's a good sign for him. As for Louisville, CNN's numbers show that his fundraising lead in Ky. is almost completely because of it -- 80 percent of his Ky. dollars come from Jefferson County.

 

Louisville is going to have to be for Kentucky what St. Louis was for Missouri in the Obama campaign, that's for sure.

 

Turnout, turnout, turnout.
Look at the D numbers and the R numbers.
And this started long before St. John locked it up.
The congressional re-elect numbers are still going south.
I don't care if Barack and HRC settle it with knives in Denver, this is still a bad year to be a Republican.

 

The only thing that concerns me is if one winning keeps the supporters of the other from coming out in November, especially if things get nasty down the home stretch.

 

Hah - you said that 4 years ago. Keep trying and sooner or later you will be right.

 

Obama has a real problem here. He probably can't win Ohio in the general election. He only won something like five counties last night. He's also going to lose Pennsylvania. It has a lot of Ohio elements and it's a closed primary. He'll have a tough time winning Pennsylvania in the general. The superdelegates are going to look at that closely. You can't win without either of those two states.

 

You're assuming he wouldn't pick up any of Hillary's votes or that he'd lose them all or a significant number to McCain. I don't know about that.

 

But isn't that assuming that Clinton voters would abstain from voting for him, or jump to McCain? Seems like the more reasonable rationale is how many likely Dem voters are there to how many likely Republican voters.

*jboy beat me to it.

 

Time.com does the math on this election and comes out saying:

 

My father, a hard-core Republican, told me last weekend he'll vote, but abstain from the presidential race. Perhaps he changes his mind if Clinton is the nominee, but that's doubtful -- he just dislikes McCain that much. I would agree that no matter who wins the D side, McCain is going to have trouble rounding up the enthusiasm that either Clinton or Obama inspires. In fact, he's been just the opposite. Not that the race will be a cakewalk, but in a way all the mudslinging between Clinton and Obama is screwing with McCain, because what's he going to say come September and October that hasn't already been said? Plus, he won't have much time to say it.

 

I believe it's more likely that Obama's voters -- many of them new to the process -- are likely to stay home than hers are. (IIRC, he even threatened that obliquely at one point.) Which is, to me, a compelling reason to nominate him.
And, Boom, OK, go ahead. Run on the platform of carrying on the legacy of President Stupid. 19 percent of Americans are already on board.