Selection Sunday-NCAA tournament thread

I've actually come around this past week on the idea of fouling up three. It makes sense when it is going to be the trailing team's final possession. But other than that I hate smart decisions.

 

Michigan had 11 offensive rebounds last night. A putback on a miss was a distinct possibility.

 

I like the idea, too. But most coaches are conservative on defense at that point.

 

Not really. It's tough to get an offensive board on a foul shot. And once again, you play those odds.

 

Actually, there's a credible case to be made that fouling, when up 3 and with less than 10 seconds left, is the better strategy:

http://www.depauw.edu/ath/mbasket/images/up3.pdf

Especially intriguing is the assertion that, when thinking the team might be doing the intentional miss strategy, intentionally violating the lane on the second free throw.

 

Marquette is closing in on a point-per-minute pace. A basket on the next possession should get them there.

 

Don't give Sparky any ideas ...

 

Got back from walking the dogs, glanced at the TV. First time I've paid any sort of attention because I don't care much about the teams either way. Marquette had 32 points with 5 1/2 to go. I was really happy I don't care about that game.

 

.975 pts/min

 

That's less than a point per possession.

 

Cuse shoots less than 40 percent from the field and wins going away - really sorry I didn't watch that thriller.

 

I skimmed that pretty quickly, so maybe I missed it, but I don't think it addressed the possibility of the team that gets fouled getting another possession, which we've seen happen. I'll concede that the odds of a team getting a four-point play or an offensive rebound and bucket aren't good.

But the odds cited are also for all basketball teams. Wouldn't the odds of hitting that game-tying 3-pointer against a Bill Self-coached team or a Jim Boeheim coached team be quite a bit lower considering their opponents overall field goal percentage? Obviously a Bill Self opponent made the shot last night, but it was a damn difficult shot made by a damn great player. How often is that shot going to be made against a statistically great defensive team?