The new and improved, fight-free Romney vs. Obama thread!

Agreed. I think the Obama campaign is trying to finesse their way to the fall in hopes that the economy picks up. In the meantime they are happy to talk about issues such as gay marriage
and Bain Capital.

 

RCP took Michigan away from Obama and put it the tossup category.

I am stunned that both Michigan and Wisconsin are so tight right now. I can't imagine that Obama won't win both states again, but he's clearly losing support in both states. I think he won both by 10+ points in 2008.

 

Gay marriage is going to hurt Obama in Florida.

If Romney can hold that lead in Florida I wonder if Portman gets a longer look for VP.

 

I really doubt Michigan is in the tossup category but the GOP governor is benefiting from extra revenue now that economy has picked up. Of course, he takes all credit for that and now is cutting taxes! That's gonna help Romney probably. Oddly, the reason the state economy is picking up is because of the AUTO BAILOUT. Which Romney clearly didn't support.

 

That's why I was so surprised...

 

Just read that Arizona is within two points. I still think its red enough to go for Romney, but growing. Umbers of Hispanic voters could make the GOP spend more resources than they would like.

 

They'll all be deported long before the November election.

Honestly, I think Arizona is the one state that McCain carried in 2008 that is in real danger of flipping to Obama. I don't think it will happen, just like I don't think Michigan will go to Romney and I doubt Wisconsin will either.

The most interesting states to watch will be Ohio (duh) and maybe Virginia.

 

Yeah, once Sheriff Joe's staff gets back from Hawaii, they'll get right on this.

 

But wait! The latest NBC poll has Obama ahead in Florida by FOUR WHOLE POINTS!

My prediction is that I'm going to waste countless hours in the next five months screwing around with the RealClearPolitics electoral map.

 

I've seen polls that said whomever Romney picks won't change much in any of the potential veep's home states: Portman in Ohio, Rubio or Jeb in Florida, or McDonnell in Virginia.

Which raises the possibility he makes his choice based on national appeal and shoring up where he's weak. Short of Mitt killing two birds with one stone and nominating Martinez, I keep going back to Rubio.

 

Made this point before, but I'll probably keep making it: D+4 in a "registered voters" poll is likely to be pretty close to even. Republican/conservative candidates usually do better in reality than they do in "registered voter" polls, because their voters turn out more reliably.

 

I would think Rubio would make Florida a Romney lock. To be fair, Romney is probably going to win Florida anyway.

I do not think the same thing about Portman and Ohio.

I think Rubio would help Romney in other states where Portman would make little to no difference.

Who knows? I'm having fun with the maps and the polls. It's more exciting than baseball...