Tiger Woods Return

DD,
I think you're underestimating your camp's numbers a bit. This sounds a bit like someone saying they think The Wire is the greatest show in history and someone adding, "Welcome to our camp, our numbers are small, but..."

I think a straw poll of just people on SJ would probably have a lot more people in the "He's done" camp than those who don't believe that. And I think many, maybe a majority, of golf fans would probably think the same.

Is there anyone else here who would be willing to write 1,500 words right now about how Tiger's *not* finished and will still break Jack's record, other than me?

So let me say, to those folks who would write those words: Welcome to our camp. With your membership to our club, you receive a $50 gift certificate to Perkins, a complementary DVD of every high five between Stev(i)e and Tiger, a DVD of every Tiger press conference, prior to the 2010 Masters, a signed copy of Charlie Pierce's Esquire story, exclusive online access to a 2002 Biofile with Tiger, one free plasma therapy session with Dr. Galea, a chunk of the boulder fans in Phoenix moved for him, Stephen Ames' testicles, and Tiger's torn ACL from 2008.

 

He probably should have listened to you he may have won a couple of majors or some tournaments along the way.

 

What I meant was that I knew the swing and his game would never hold up.
I can't do it as consistently, but I can hit the ball nearly as far as he does (when I was playing regularly, at least) and my swing speed wasn't close to being as fast as his.

It wasn't built for longevity.

 

You know you're my on-line brother, STG, but I completely disagree with this. I think the "Tiger will find it again and be awesome!!!!" camp is still BY FAR the majority opinion, yet they seem to believe they're defying conventional wisdom and fighting off the legions of haters. Someone brought this up on Poz's blog the other day, and I absolutely think it's true. Tiger has LEGIONS of defenders in the media, golf or other. We were just talking the other day here about SI's Tour Confidential stuff before Firestone where Hack and Shipnuck and others were suggesting he could win this week. And when he opened with that 68, we had Chef predicting ON THIS THREAD he was going to win Firestone.

Prior to this week, the people saying "he's done, and he'll never get it back" were definitely, DEFINITELY in the minority. Especially in the golf media, where every single birdie is greeted with "HE'S BACK!" Feherty and Scott Van Pelt may be his two biggest homers, but the are hardly alone.

 

There was a third camp, where I was. We thought he could get to a point of just regular-good. A tour stop victory here, one more major there... But falling short of Jack.

I still think that's possible... But it's not like I'm rooting for it.

 

Not even getting into that end of it.

 

Oh yeah, DD, I know this is a subject we've gone back and forth on over the last year. And since it's golf and a 60-year-old can still contend for a major, we could be having this discussion when Tiger is 58 and still stuck on 14.

"He finished T3 at the Masters last year," I'll write. "He gets his putting going with the belly-putter, he can still get five more majors. I really believe this."

I agree with you on the golf media but part of that might be wishful thinking on their part, especially for TV folks, because if Tiger and Phil are fading out of the picture they see a future of Dufner and Irishmen contending in every major. I'm not sure they really believe it or they're just stoking "He's back" fires to keep people interested. I, on the other hand, actually believe it - I'm like Bachmann; I really believe my crazy talk.

I would say - and I think I've said this on either this thread or other Tiger ones; I have to regurgitate my arguments because there hasn't exactly been compelling new evidence from Woods to support my arguments - that, online at least, the "He's back" beliefs after every birdie are more than offset by the "he's done!" statements you see after every hook or every bogey from him. Follow along with an ESPN golfcast, the new one or when it was Sobel, or on Golf.com and you'll want to stab your eyes out to keep from rolling them every 5 seconds. Two straight birdies and it's "Look out, field!" A bogey or a horrific drive and it's questions about if he can ever recover, he'll never catch Jack, he'll never win another major, etc.

Or just on this thread you had Ian Baker-Finch references and of course comparisons to relatives who have had similar injuries. And it's like, no offense to Ian or Michael's brother, but they ain't Tiger.

With the SI guys, I haven't read the confidential the last few weeks but before that Shipnuck, Hack and some of the others were pretty pessimistic about Woods' chances anywhere in the near future.

Other topics:
* The swing changes, he's said several times injuries were a big reason for them. He said it when he went with Haney from Harmon.

* Jack had the same swing for 50 years. Which is great. Then again, he didn't win 14 majors by the age of 33 with three different swings. Maybe he should have been tinkering...

* The mental aspect. Maybe he is a shattered soul inside. Maybe he confesses to his shrink every day that he doesn't believe he can win and he's taken down his poster listing Jack's major victories. I don't know, and unless Nixon breaks into his psychiatrist's office to steal the records, I don't think anyone else does either. Yeah, we can speculate that mentally he's obviously lost a lot of his edge because of the scandal and, now, the two years of little success. But can we predict that it remains like that forever? Maybe he meets a nice girl, proposes to her on safari in South Africa, is again a content family guy with gals on the side. Who knows.

* The knees are a big thing, obviously. Could be his demise.

* And the numbers I've cited before (again, regurgitating my old numbers): He's now played in 10 majors without winning one. It seems absurd and that he's completely off his game and why the hell did he change his swing and he doesn't have a clue and this would never happen to Jack. But, this is the third time now he's gone 10 majors without a victory. 1997 Masters, then no victories until 1999 PGA. 2002 U.S. Open and no victories until 2005 Masters. Both times it was during swing changes. As is the third time.

There's the added scandal and another knee injury - or two - thrown in. But we have seen this before, even if the +11 is something new. And during those other droughts, he really wasn't competing for majors.

In the 10 majors he didn't win between '97 and 99, he had five Top 10 finishes. In the 02-05 drought, three Top 10s. In this one? Six. So in that regard, he's actually been better during this dry spell. He did miss a pair of cuts, which didn't happen in the other ones. But even the last disastrous two years, when it seems like he's occasionally the worst golfer in the world, he had three T4s in majors. That's not exactly Ian Baker-Finch territory and I'm pretty sure Michael's brother didn't have any Top 10s during that stretch either.

So now we'll see what happens at the 11th major. Both times before, that's when he won. And both times, it's when the swing changes clicked and he started dominating - winning 7 of 11 with the Butch swing, winning six of 14 with the Haney swing.

And the other number: if he wins one of the next 10 majors, he's still ahead of Jack's pace.

If he goes through all of 2012 without a victory in a major, I'll start calling about rental prices in the He's Done camp and I hope I'll be accepted. But we really have seen this story before - Tiger looking hapless, not winning majors, etc, even if there's the added treats of sex addiction and ACLs. And we've seen how the story changed. If it's happened twice before, I don't think it's delusional or being a homer to think it could happen again.

Now, what kind of dental plan do you offer in the He's Done camp...

 

Think about that "7 of 11 [majors]", that is amazing, something that sets him apart from Jack (and every other golfer ever.)