Tropical Storm Ernesto targets ... now it's Florida again

Re: Hurricane Ernesto targets ... uh, make that Florida (again?!?)

Not to be rude, and I pray the storm doesn't crush Florida, but we could really use a huge rain event up in my part of Virginia, which is where it appears to be heading as an extratropical storm.

 

Re: Hurricane Ernesto targets ... uh, make that Florida (again?!?)

What are the chances it lingers up the Atlantic Coast and drops down on Long Island, or worse, NYC?

 

Re: Hurricane Ernesto targets ... uh, make that Florida (again?!?)



Right now, looks like multiple landfalls (SE Florida, then the Carolinas). But then there's this for the Dr. Masters blog at weatherunderground.com:

While much of the focus of attention has deservedly been on Ernesto's impact on Florida, I believe the best chance of Ernesto hitting the U.S. as a Category 2 or 3 hurricane will come in the Carolinas. The GFDL model has Ernesto as a borderline Category 1 or 2 hurricane with a pressure of 975 mb Thursday night upon landfall in South Carolina. The GFS, UKMET, and Canadian models predict that Ernesto will stall off the Carolina coast, as the trough of low pressure drawing it northeastwards accelerates away. High pressure will then build in, forcing Ernesto back to the west towards the Carolina coast. If this happens, Ernesto will have plenty of time over the warm Gulf Stream, and could easily reach Category 2 or 3 strength before making landfall in the Carolinas. The NOGAPS model depicts a similar scenario, but predicts Ernest will stall further north, then move west, threatening the Mid-Atlantic states.

 

Re: Hurricane Ernesto targets ... uh, make that Florida (again?!?)

Big lines at the gas stations already. Let me add that there's no longer anything fun or interesting about these -- they're basically a pain in the ass.

 

Re: Hurricane Ernesto targets ... uh, make that Florida (again?!?)

yeah the fun went out a loooooooooooooooong time ago. god i hate hurricanes.

 

Re: Hurricane Ernesto targets ... uh, make that Florida (again?!?)

Hoping this one turns right a bit, and that it's just mostly a rain event.

 

Re: Hurricane Ernesto targets ... uh, make that Florida (again?!?)

Why, is it expected to hit South Fresno?

Seriously, I hope you and your family stay safe.

 

Re: Hurricane Ernesto targets ... uh, make that Florida (again?!?)

Latest ... it's now forecast to make landfall in Homestand and then track over Miami and Fort Lauderdale. There's some good news: 1) It's going over the most mountainous part of Cuba, which could break it up some; 2) It's forecast to be a tropical storm at landfall, not yet a hurricane.

They're gaining confidence in the forecast hourly, but it's always an inexact science.

Thanks for the wishes, FH. Yes, Fresno is a very big place. Fortunately, my son and daughter are both much further north in college.

I'm still going to try to play golf in the morning. If the outer bands get here while I'm doing that, it'll be golf in like my sixth named storm. Ball sure flies funny in those sometime.

 

Re: Hurricane Ernesto targets ... uh, make that Florida (again?!?)

I'd keep playing. I don't think the heavy stuff's gonna come down for quite a while.

 

Re: Hurricane Ernesto targets ... uh, make that Florida (again?!?)

Yeah, I'll probably have a career round going and get carried away by a gust.

Schools closing, Tuesday for some, Tuesday and Wednesday for some.

 

Re: Hurricane Ernesto targets ... uh, make that Florida (again?!?)

Just dropped $40 at Union 76 to fill the Camaro, but my earlier post about the cold front continuing to push the forecast track eastward appears to be coming true. Right now the biggest danger Florida may face will be a brushing landfall in Miami.

 

Re: Hurricane Ernesto targets ... uh, make that Florida (again?!?)

My guess is pain-in-the-ass status, maybe a lot of rain and some wind, but nothing in the Wilma range.

Of course, "guess" is the operative word.