Trump cheats at golf - the ONE and ONLY politics thread

Total aside here...Spotlight's director was featured on CBS Sunday Morning a while back and they asked his devout mother, "what did you think when you saw the movie?" She said, "Well...(pregnant pause)...I wasn't sure but my parish priest saw it and told me he liked it so I liked it to0."

 

It has been three states. Saying "how long can he go without a win" is silly.

Trump has show time and again a hard ceiling around 30-35%. The generic conservative faction has shown it can beat that every time, it has just fractured its vote among many candidates. We've already seen some consolidation of that vote lead to Rubio rising, and we will see more with Bush's dropout.

If you want to say maybe Kasich stays in long enough to screw Rubio so that Trump can build a lead and ride it home, fine. That is plausible.

But it is silly to say "how can he win if he hasn't won, because winners win?" We have the voter-second-preference data right in front of us that says in a Trump-Cruz-Rubio three way, calling it a tie between Rubio and Trump is the most favorable thing Trump can hope for.

 

It's been shown in every primary campaign cycle over the years that winning early states brings you additional voters. People are drawn to winners.

I'm not sure why we continue to think that Trump's ceiling will remain at 35% as the field narrows.

 

Because he has already maxed out on the winner bonus. He has been the reported leader for months and the focus of more coverage than the other candidates combined.

 

Are Cruz's voters reflexively anti-Trump? Unproven, and that's the biggest bloc left. Trump is going to say "the same establishment losers who backed Jeb are now behind Rubio" which has the advantage of being true.

 

Bush dropping out is bad for Trump, obviously. Cruz has to be beside himself that Carson is sticking this out right now.

 

I honestly don't know on Cruz voters. I don't know if we will find out, either.

Anyone swayed by anti-establishment attacks is already voting for Trump. That well is dry.

 

In support of my last point, Romney is going to endorse Rubio. Not sure that's a positive for him.

 

Why would older Catholics support Trump after he challenged the Pontiff?

 

Rick, can you define these "generic conservatives" who you think might flock to Rubio? Who are they? The people who believe they're politically enlightened because they listen to Rush Limbaugh and watch Fox news? Don't these folks "cap out" pretty low, too?

Meanwhile, I see Trump picking up even more of the cops and firemen crowd -- middle-class people who vote more viscerally than intellectually.