Trump cheats at golf - the ONE and ONLY politics thread

She could write columns for the Knoxville newspaper.

 

The 38% who didn't vote Trump, Carson or Cruz yesterday. Again: I'm not telling you those voters are there by narrative or imagination. They are *right there*.

If Trump were going to pick up more support, he'd have done it by now. He has been the reported leader, he won some high profile contests, and several opponents have dropped out, and he is still exactly where he was in early January. And this is exactly what the data predicted: he has high unfavorables and is the second choice of basically no one who isn't voting for him. The data predicted a ceiling, the ceiling has been there for six weeks, and the data predicts it continues.

 

They aren't all going to break for Rubio. You know that.

 

Yes. I've indicated that several times. But most of them are, by a wide margin. Enough to make him vs. Trump close at worst.

 

Eh, maybe, but Cruz is still a party establishment candidate and will pluck away some of those. Also, as noted by Gee, Trump hasn't even started in on Rubio yet. I'm sure he would like to add that scalp to his wall alongside Walker and Jeb.

There are a lot of states where Trump > Rubio+Kasich+Bush+Christie. So 1,237 gets more difficult with every primary.

 

Nevada is Tuesday. Polling is sparse and it's a caucus state, but those polls indicate it could be Trump's biggest win yet.

 

Trump should ask Christie to be his running mate and send him out every day with the lone objective to pummel Rubio.

 

PS: There have been no polls in Florida since mid-late January, when the Seahawks and Pats were favorites to meet in the Super Bowl, but those taken then showed Trump with a lead large enough to beat Rubio even if one adds all of Bush's, Kasich's, Paul's and Christie's support to Rubio.

 

Arizona showed that too, I know. In Michigan, Rubio could sneak ahead if he gets every stray.

 

I don't think there are "a lot" of such startes. But yes, I think Cruz might be able to siphon off enough to give Trump a shot at some narrow but important victories in the post-consolidation race.

And I think the "Rubio will wilt under the attention that comes with consolidating support" is plausible. I don't have a strong opinion on that either way.

I just think we are in an annoying loop of "how can you expect Rubio to have a chance to win when Trump keeps winning?!!!!!" when the answer is pretty easily understood by anyone with a high-school background in math.

By using a melting pot of preference polling, favorable/unfavorable ratings and demographics, we can make pretty clear educated guesses about how voters will break when the field narrows.

Similarly, the idea of a Trump ceiling isn't just made up out of wishcasting. It was predicted weeks before Iowa and has held true even as he should have been getting winner bonus. We know what the demographics of Trump's voters look like, we know what the demographics of the Republican primary looks like, and we can ask people who their second and third choice is and whether they view a candidate favorably or unfavorably. Those all point to a hard Trump ceiling.

Can Trump win through a hard ceiling? Sure, there are paths. We are further along one of those paths than most pundits thought possible

But I think we live in a world where election analysis can go a little deeper than "I think cops will vote for Trump so he'll pick up support" or "Rubio is 0-for-3 so when can he ever win?!"

 

And to take him off the board as an attack dog for the mainstream GOP to take him off.

The GOP has to send out absolute bomb throwers to take out Trump, people who won't be afraid to hit him on the mob rumors, the bankruptcies, the drug rumors, the sex rumors, the GaySex rumors and yes, the incest rumors, which at this point don't even have to be called "rumors" any more due to Trump's own compulsion to keep revisiting the topic. Say the words: He Fucks His Daughter.

The GOP needs somebody not afraid to pull down their own pants, lower their sphincter right onto Trump's bizarro world rug and squeeze out a bucketload of hot steaming diarrhea right on his head.

That's what it will take to get rid of Donald Fucking Trump, somebody shitting on his head on national teevee.

Almost any other GOP personality would figure they have too much dignity to lose, or find even taking about the topic to be just icky.

Not Christie.

 

You're hired!