Trump cheats at golf - the ONE and ONLY politics thread

Tied:

 

40% for each candidate. 36% each, with Johnson at 12%, in a three way race.

LOL. Hillary Clinton is at 36%.

 

It seems like Pence, but maybe that's because I'm in the eye of the storm.

 

Remember a few days ago when everyone here was calling me a troll for saying her polling was slipping?

 

You weren't a troll ... you were just dripping with bias. Don't you remember?

 

There's only one poll that matters - that little one on a Tuesday in early in November. Until then, God help us all.

And afterwards, God help us all.

 

I would bet a four-figure sum Johnson gets way closer to 1.2 percent than 12 percent on Nov. 8. Summer is when third parties shine. When the leaves fall, so do they.

 

538 has Trump LEAPING from a 22.5 percent chance of winning to 29.2 percent! Nate Silver started to flip, but then shrugged. Suck it haters!

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

 

You do realize that's a pretty substantial increase, don't you? If someone told you that doing X would increase the chance of your pecker falling off by roughly 33%, you'd quit doing X in an instant.

 

So, it's tied.

 

Doesn't he have to withdraw from the governor's race by noon today for the Republicans to get someone else on the ballot?

(He can't run for both at the same time.)

Wouldn't seem to fit with the timeline of an announcement tomorrow.

Interestingly, Pence and Christie were both left the list of speakers at the convention, released this morning, while Newt was on it.

 

Silver himself said this was a big jump for any candidate in one day in the 538 model, which like all models is based on probabilities created by existing data to smooth out signal noise. Right now, it's a close election. Last month, it wasn't. Four months from now, who knows?