Trump cheats at golf - the ONE and ONLY politics thread

That was priceless wasn't it? Wonder what newspapers that guy reads regularly?

 

Trump received more votes than the winner of the 2004 and 2008 Iowa Caucus. In fact, he received more votes than any Republican had ever received in an Iowa Caucus before last night.

That's pretty impressive. It's like an olympic swimmer who beats the old world record, but only gets the silver medal because someone else swam faster.

And, here's the thing: Cruz spent a year building his turnout operation in Iowa. He can't do that in later states, as they come up so quickly.

If Trump can turn out voters in a caucus state, with a high percentage of evangelicals, then his campaign should be able to turn out voters in later states. It's not based -- at all -- on a typical "ground game".

And, he didn't do so terribly that he's going to lose some momentum, especially with the lead he has in New Hampshire.

The real winner really might be Rubio. If he comes in the top three in NH, he can turn it into a three way race. And, he may be the one who survives to make it a two way race with Trump, and not Cruz.

 

BTW, what percentage of the vote would Elizabeth Warren have gotten last night?

And, how crazy is it that the Democrat(ic) Party doesn't release the raw vote totals in Iowa.

If narrative is the thing, I think we can all agree that would change the narrative. Bernie almost certainly won more votes.

 

A few months ago all the stories were about the GOP moving to a winner-take-all format to prevent a guy like Trump from keeping up with a guy like JEB!, and the irony that Trump could end up winning the nomination because of that rule.

Now I see the delegates were split last night. What am I missing?

 

The very early states get divided. And, if you moved up your primary/caucus to compete with Iowa/New Hampshire, your delegates would be divided proportionally (and I think they would have also applied some penalty in the number of delegate awarded).

But, I think beginning with Super Tuesday, most states become winner take all.

(Incredibly, California's primary awards three delegates per Congressional district. As you can imagine, there are very few Republicans in some inner city districts, so just a couple dozen votes could get you three delegates.)

 

"Don't finish! You never finish!"

 

I think that Trump definitely lost momentum last night, and maybe a lot of it. Time will tell - it's a long few days until New Hampshire.

His entire campaign has been premised upon the gimmick that he's a "winner," competing against "losers." If that's your schtick, you better deliver, and he didn't. It undercuts months of single-note bombast.

Maybe we should have seen last night coming a little better. His ground operation, compared to Cruz's, is Neanderthal. He raises very little money compared to the rest of the legitimate candidates in the GOP field. What does that mean? It could mean that that his supposed supporters don't have enough skin in the game to actually show up, at least not to the degree that Cruz's and Rubio's did. (Your point that his vote total would have won in any other cycle is well-taken.)

There was chatter this morning, from exit polling, I'm assuming, that skipping the debate so close to the caucus did, indeed, hurt him last night with voters.

I can't wait to see the next round of polling from New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada, so we can get a better grip on what last night meant. That said, I think you almost have to discount Trump's polling by a few percentage points at this juncture, as compared to Cruz and Rubio. They are simply better at turning their supporters out.

 

Congratulations to Jeb Bush on losing to Ben Carson and Rand Paul besides the top three. Will he quit after New Hampshire, where he's polling fourth?

 

Well, nailed this except for the spot that mattered.

 

How Hillary Clinton Survives the Iowa Disaster

"Disaster"?

Do these people listen to themselves? Almost no state was as favorable to Sanders, demographically, as Iowa. And she won it.

 

Does that mean you're patting yourself on your back with just your pinkie?

 

Trump has probably lost a little momentum, but he should get most of it back by New Hampshire.

His campaign is much more national. It's built on free media, not flooding various states with ads, direct mail, and advertising. And, he can run it on a shoe string, so he's going on to the end.

Hell, his donations allow his campaign to pay one of his corporate entities for flying his personal plane.

No one is as positioned to do well in as many states as Trump.