Trump cheats at golf - the ONE and ONLY politics thread

LongTimeListener · Oct 24, 2016

Should be fun for Trump on Nov. 8 when the unskewed results come out then!

amraeder · Oct 24, 2016

YankeeFan said: ↑

The email chain starts with an email from Tom Matzzie, a "clean energy entrepreneur, and former big shot at MoveOn.

Tom Matzzie is a strategist on politics, the media and technology. He is former Washington Director of MoveOn.org Political Action where he led U.S. campaigns to end the war in Iraq. He has been a strategist at the intersection of politics, the media and technology for more than 10 years.

Tom Matzzie | Huffington Post

Here's what he writes:

----- Original Message -----
From: tmatzzie@gmail.com <tmatzzie@gmail.com>
To: georgerakis@gmail.com <georgerakis@gmail.com>; Andy Meyer
Sent: Thu Jan 10 21:21:07 2008
Subject: Meet and polling design

Hey, when can we meet? I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling.

-Tom

It looks like he's suggesting, at the very least, oversampling certain groups in their own polling, that they would then share with friendly media, to create an air of inevitability regarding her campaign.

What Trump and others are suggesting is that -- weather based on the Clinton campaign's polling, or for other reasons -- independent polling organizations have followed suit, and are oversampling certain groups, to help the Clinton campaign's narrative.
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Media polls I believe = polling to determine media buys.

The oversampling is to get accurate representations of subgroups (even if Native Americans make up a small percentage of the population, you still need to get enough of them to have confidence in your results.) This doesn't mean you include too large a sample in your overall race assessment. You weight it back to their proportion in the overall population.

From Pew:

Oversampling
For some surveys, it is important to ensure that there are enough members of a certain subgroup in the population so that more reliable estimates can be reported for that group. To do this, we oversample members of the subgroup by selecting more people from this group than would typically be done if everyone in the sample had an equal chance of being selected. Because the margin of sampling error is related to the size of the sample, increasing the sample size for a particular subgroup through the use of oversampling allows for estimates to be made with a smaller margin of error. A survey that includes an oversample weights the results so that members in the oversampled group are weighted to their actual proportion in the population; this allows for the overall survey results to represent both the national population and the oversampled subgroup.

For example, African Americans make up 13.6% of the total U.S. population, according to the U.S. Census. A survey with a sample size of 1,000 would only include approximately 136 African Americans. The margin of sampling error for African Americans then would be around 10.5 percentage points, resulting in estimates that could fall within a 21-point range, which is often too imprecise for many detailed analyses surveyors want to perform. In contrast, oversampling African Americans so that there are roughly 500 interviews completed with people in this group reduces the margin of sampling error to about 5.5 percentage points and improves the reliability of estimates that can be made. Unless a listed sample is available or people can be selected from prior surveys, oversampling a particular group usually involves incurring the additional costs associated with screening for eligible respondents.

An alternative to oversampling certain groups is to increase the overall sample size for the survey. This option is especially desirable if there are multiple groups of interest that would need to be oversampled. However, this approach often increases costs because the overall number of completed interviews needs to be increased substantially to improve the representation of the subgroup(s) of interest.
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Inky_Wretch · Oct 24, 2016

LongTimeListener said: ↑

Should be fun for Trump on Nov. 8 when the unskewed results come out then!
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Just like in 2012! #UnskewedPolls #RomneyWillWin

poindexter · Oct 24, 2016

YankeeFan said: ↑

It looks like he's suggesting, at the very least, oversampling certain groups in their own polling, that they would then share with friendly media, to create an air of inevitability regarding her campaign.

What Trump and others are suggesting is that -- weather based on the Clinton campaign's polling, or for other reasons -- independent polling organizations have followed suit, and are oversampling certain groups, to help the Clinton campaign's narrative.
Click to expand...

Sounds like Karl Rove is going to be awfully confused again on election night!

Double Down · Oct 24, 2016

SpeedTchr said: ↑

Uhhhh, ok then. Good answer. Still no idea who they are.

You guys are entirely too consumed with bullshit.
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It's Curt Schilling and Steve Bannon, Trump's campaign manager and former CEO/EIC of Breitbart media.

poindexter · Oct 24, 2016

Moderator1 said: ↑

Lucy Bowen so adamant she posted it twice
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Here's Lucy

cjericho · Oct 24, 2016

Are suspenders and a belt necessary, with shorts?

dixiehack · Oct 24, 2016

Don't know if this guy is Republican or Democrat, though I suspect the former. But I am irrationally in love with this commercial.

Starman · Oct 24, 2016

dixiehack said: ↑

Don't know if this guy is Republican or Democrat, though I suspect the former. But I am irrationally in love with this commercial.

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My speakers are messed up on my computer so I have no sound. But it appears every single person in that commercial is just getting more, and more, and more, and more pissed at Gerald.

Particularly the younger guy.

doctorquant · Oct 24, 2016

dixiehack said: ↑

Don't know if this guy is Republican or Democrat, though I suspect the former. But I am irrationally in love with this commercial.

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That's a great commercial.

TigerVols · Oct 24, 2016

cjericho said: ↑

Are suspenders and a belt necessary, with shorts?
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Well, that eyeglasses case is no doubt heavy.

TigerVols · Oct 24, 2016

Another reminder that the Republican standard-bearer, its wannabe Commander-in-Chief, despises America and its fighting forces.

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Trump cheats at golf - the ONE and ONLY politics thread

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