Trump cheats at golf - the ONE and ONLY politics thread

It went from +12 to +8 in the four two way poll in one day.

It's a rolling, four day poll. But, it looks like they're still ramping up. The poll from 10/20-10/23 only had 611 LV according to RCP. The poll from 10/21-10/24 had 1119 LV.

WTF?

Why did they even release the results Sunday, showing +12, if they didn't have a full sample?

Oh, because it drove the narrative for their Sunday morning show.

 

The polls do seem to be creeping back towards Trump a bit; however, all the early voting data -- which, you know, is a true indicator -- shows Democratic registrants far outvoting the GOP.

 

The polls always get closer as we get closer to the actual election, because party loyalty starts to exert more pull.

 

I agree with this.

It might get closer, but while there are some good state polls out today in Florida, Ohio, and Arizona, I think Trump is likely too far behind in too many states.

And, the Dems have an advantage in early voting and in their ground game in general.

 

Trend of the week among those on the Right seems to be pointing to the 1980 election and how Gallup didn't predict the Reagan landslide - so, of course, the polls in 2016 are missing Trump's win too.

 

Nate Silver's model has consistently given Trump a better chance (not that it's good, 15 percent) than his modeling rivals. He explained yesterday that his model has built in more uncertainty to account for possible polling errors.
To me, the most interesting poll yesterday/this a.m. was the Monmouth Arizona poll. It showed Trump up 46-45, but among the respondents who said they'd already voted, which was 40 percent of the total, Clinton led 52-42. That puts a real burden on whatever turnout operation Trump may have there.

 

What turnout operation?

 

I think he's going to win, too.

 

Pretty sure he wasn't acting.

 

A Georgia legislator who was driven from the bench after sexually harassing a lawyer is spearheading a drive to abolish the watchdog agency that got him out.

Disgraced former Ga. judge behind push to abolish judicial watchdog group

 

You mean it's not utopia?

Yeah, I think we can agree there.

Greater good isn't perfect good.

If you have a better plan for health care, let's hear it.

 

Your strawmen and question-begging tax my patience, but in the interest of harmony I'll give it one last go.

My plan: Untie health insurance from employment by eliminating its tax deductibility and then get the federal government the fuck out of the way.