Trump cheats at golf - the ONE and ONLY politics thread

Polling shows PoC most optimistic about future of US and their own lives, probably just because they're younger on average. Paradoxically, optimism is why young people vote in such low numbers. They figure there's always time to fix things if they go wrong.

 

NEWT! needs to be sedated for his own good.

 

Actually, he's right. That just doesn't happen. Internal campaign polls are always more stable than public polls which have a time-compression problem and thus are more subject to the issue of "who picks up the damn phone?" Clinton almost surely never led by 12. She may or may not be down one today. It depends on who shows up at polls now through Nov. 8. In this same poll, despite its "enthusiasm" gap. Clinton had a big lead among the 21 percent respondents who said they'd already voted. Note the "said" in that sentence. They may not have. Basic math indicates this poll is projecting lower turnout for this year compared to 2012. Low turnout is always good for Republican candidates.

 

Trump has consolidated enough conservative support to bring the national environment down to Clinton +3 or 4. With a lead like that, she would be expected to trail about one poll per day, not including the national tracking polls that aren't fully new samples every day.

He isn't actually winning and isn't going to.

 

Not sure if serious? If not, well played.

 

The media's take away from this campaign is that they need to work harder on behalf of Democrats.

 

He is right that individual polls are frequently inaccurate and prone to wild swings. He is wrong that polls in general are not meaningful. Several different poll-fed models (all of which are just fancy ways of aggregating) have nailed at least 149 of 150 states on the last three elections. They would have to get at least 4 large, well-polled states wrong in order for Trump to win, and probably closer to 8.

This is Gingrich's job. He isn't lying per se. He is just intentionally laying out the facts in a way that will lead people to inaccurate conclusions that benefit him. Which is his job.

 

Or the Republicans need to learn to lie better than Trump does.

 

One thing which might explain Clinton's lead in "those who've already voted" which has been constant in almost every poll. Actual voting stats show a much higher percentage of women using early voting than men in big states like North Carolina and Florida. Makes sense. In general, women busier than men.

 

"The media."

I don't know what the hell that guy's arguing. But, this is pretty funny:

Journalists should not characterize political candidates as liars. But what happens when political candidates base their entire campaigns on very persuasive lies?

That's, like, every campaign ever run in the history of everything.

 

Considering how little Trump is spending on his campaign (aside from renting his own properties and buying copies of his own books) and that he is refusing to pay one of his pollsters, I doubt Team Trump has very much data to work with in that regard. I mean, aside from Breitbart and Drudge online surveys.

 

Ok gang, the bell lap is here. Time to make some predictions.

ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Ariz.:
Colo.:
Fla.:
Ga.:
Iowa:
Maine 2nd:
Mich.:
Neb. 2nd:
Nev.:
N.H.:
N.C.:
Ohio:
Pa.:
Utah:
Va.:
Wis.:

SENATE
Ind.:
Mo.:
Nev.:
N.H.:
N.C.:
Pa.: