Trump cheats at golf - the ONE and ONLY politics thread

Forward!

 

Forward's a Wisconsin thing. It's even on the flag.

 

Bernie's only winning 55-45. From all the talk I expected it to be at least 20 percent.

 

538 referencing some exit polling data that suggests Kasich voters strategically switched to Cruz tonight in Wisconsin.

Trump inevitability is really staggered. He's not done by any means, but after tonight the talk is going to start to turn toward "where can Trump overperform expectations from here on out" because he needs to exceed what you'd currently project for him to get to 1237.

 

Heard an anecdote this morning on the radio (from a Giants writer of all sources) that while sitting in a hotel lobby he saw the same Cruz ad played three times in the span of 8 minutes saying something like "a vote for Kasich is a vote for Trump." I wonder if that played a role, if at all, in the thinking of some voters today.

 

Finally figured out Sanders "open convention" strategy. There are a total of 4,051 pledged delegates and 2,383 needed to win. I'm guessing his campaign is betting that if they can keep HRC from the magic number, the 714 super delegates (or unpledged delegates) won't want to make the call and just not vote on the first ballot? 1700 and change left, HRC needs more than 1,000 of them. Bernie needs 1,300 if the superdelegates want to make sure "the people" decide it.

 

This wasn't exactly a secret. Unfortunately, Sanders and he team are foolish if they think he can overtake Clinton in the delegate count, excluding superdelegates.

 

He's the Democratic Trump, as revealed in the Daily News interview. And this is a guy who has been helping set policy for 30 years.

 

Read that yesterday ... Man, that was bad.

 

Bernie has that delegate gap and for all the adoration, he only gained +13 on Hillary in Wisconsin. Not going to get it done.

The proportional awarding of pledged delegates and the superdelegates make it extremely hard for a challenger to rally from behind on the Democratic side. You need tranches of delegate pickups and those just aren't there to be had. (Obama benefited from this in 2008.)

Hillary can run the four corners if she has to, but she really needs a killshot in NY and PA to shut the detractors up.

On the Republican side ... I think it's gonna be Cruz now. Trump won't get to 1,237 and it'll go to the floor, and Cruz will get it handily on the second ballot.

It won't be a white knight and it sure as hell won't be the one-state wonder Kasich, although I'd wager he'll be on the veep short list. He did his job and will be rewarded.

 

And being from Ohio doesn't hurt, either.

 

Superdelegates are Democratic elected officials, and HRC has been campaigning on their behalf for years. No way many of them will switch allegiances to a Johnny-come-lately wh0 doesn't raise money for them nor campaign for them.