Two Years On: Obamacare

If you dismiss NBER research out of hand as "bad information" because some foundation or another donated to it in the past, then I shudder to think what you consider "good" information. But just so we don't get into one of those "You're moving the goalpost" kinda snits, I'll drop this.

 

Reports are that the administration's lawyer did not have a good day today.

 

No, no, no. Don't go misquoting me. I referred to "bad information" in general, and in the theoretical, in answer to a separate question.

If the report you linked is the best research available on the matter, and was prepared by disinterested parties with no ideological destination in mind, I'll happily take it in.

 

We all tend to give more credence to information that supports are beliefs and require much more evidence to believe information that contradicts our beliefs.

 

I misunderstood. I inferred that you are inclined to view NBER research as ideologically tainted given those donations.

 

Today's oral arguments:

http://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_audio_detail.aspx?argument=11-398-Tuesday

Fascinating stuff.

 

For all the debate over the constitutionality, let's not forget that Obama took a plan that was pushed by Republicans (including Romney), that was a product of the Heritage Foundation, yet suddenly it was toxic to Republicans because Obama was the one pushing it. The objections (at least most of them from Congress and the attorneys general) aren't really about health care. They're about denying a possible major victory to a Democratic president. Because they know that if Obama succeeds where everyone else failed, and people actually notice they can get health care again, then they stand a good chance of being fucked.

 

You've very accurately described why conservatives are suddenly finding the Newt Gingrich health-care plan odious.

Now care to explain why liberals can't stop cheering for this incredibly conservative plan?

Just like conservatives are hoping to prevent Obama from scoring political points by passing and implementing this plan, Obama sold out a lot of his principles and passed a bad bill just so that he could claim that he passed something and reap the potential political rewards.

 

And in my professional life, I do.

On a message board? During the work day? Less so.

 

Interesting comment from Kennedy at the end.

He said the uninsured create risk that must be priced into the insurance market.

Is that economic activity?

 

Actually, a lot of liberals are not fans of this plan, because of the lack of a public option. I look at this plan as better-than-the-alternative, but not a panacea. I think, from a business, economic and social standpoint, Medicare for all (with the option of buying private insurance) is the way to go, but there has never been the political will to pass it.

My reading of this story today...
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-skeptical-kennedy-signals-trouble-for-obamas-healthcare-law-20120327,0,5723465.story

...is that there's an excellent chance the Supreme Court will shoot down the individual mandate. And they may well be right, for the arguments also given here about government forcing you to buy a private company's product. It is different from auto insurance in that you don't have to buy it if you don't own a car.

You know who should be a LOT more nervous that the Obama administration right now? Insurance companies. I could see that everything but the individual mandate passes muster. But insurers are going to have now cover the costs of the insurance expansion without guarantee they will get the revenue to cover them. Or, the public option comes back into play, or there is serious discussion of single-payer, because the government can tax to pay for it.

Congress would have two years to figure this out. One thing that would not happen, unless the Supreme Court throws out the whole law: Congress voting to overturn Obamacare. There won't be the votes in the Senate, and there won't be a veto-proof vote in the House.

 

If it is, the concept of a government constrained in its powers is dead.