Ukraine Always Get What You Want

Opinion: Putin has a huge advantage in the kind of nuclear weapon he would be most likely to use

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/03/putin-has-tactical-nuclear-advantage/


"But a nuclear conflict won’t necessarily be World War III — and that could be to the Russians’ advantage. If Putin ever does go nuclear, he is more likely to authorize a limited use of smaller, “nonstrategic” nuclear weapons, whether in desperation if his Ukraine invasion continues to sour, or against NATO countries in some future confrontation.

Such non-strategic, or tactical, nukes might not end the world, but they could end a battle — or even a war — by taking out the 160 tanks in an armored division, for example. Russia could be emboldened to take such a step because it has more tactical nuclear weapons than all of its rivals, including the United States. This imbalance deserves immediate American attention.

Russia has only a modest lead over the United States in long-range, strategic nuclear warheads regulated by the 2010 New Start treaty — 1,456 vs. 1,357 of the high-payload weapons. But when it comes to unregulated, shorter-range and lower-payload tactical nuclear weapons, according to a 2021 Congressional Research Service report, the United States has only 230, “with around 100 deployed with aircraft in Europe.” Russia has up to 2,000."

 

Somehow, we will manage to trudge along without your thoughtless analysis of the situation.

 

That's a damn good point. I wonder what story he would tell to cover it up at home. It's not as if it has to be a good one. He has no problem telling transparent lies and forcing his own people to believe them.

 

Charlie Kirk's War

lol

 

Another from this morning's WaPo.


As war loomed, U.S. armed Ukraine to hit Russian aircraft, tanks and prep for urban combat, declassified shipment list shows

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/04/us-weapons-ukraine/

"The United States drastically enhanced its shipments of lethal military aid and protective equipment to Ukraine as the prospect of a Russian invasion became more apparent and then a reality, according to a declassified accounting of transfers and sales reviewed by The Washington Post.

The list indicates that as early as December, the Pentagon was equipping Ukrainian fighters with arms and equipment useful for fighting in urban areas, including shotguns and specialized suits to safeguard soldiers handling unexploded ordnance. Over the last week, the Biden administration has increased such shipments, sending Stinger antiaircraft missile systems for the first time and further augmenting Kyiv’s supply of antitank Javelin missiles and other ammunition."

"Many experts say that despite the Ukrainian military’s efforts to exhaust Russian forces, the war is destined to turn into a street fight, particularly if Moscow is able to assert control over key cities. The shipment list suggests that the Biden administration anticipated Ukraine would need to arm itself for a multipronged invasion."

"It affirms that the Biden administration has sent Stinger man-portable air defense systems, or MANPADS, to Ukraine in the last several days, weapons that would aid soldiers targeting Russian aircraft. Those were provided alongside shipments of Javelin missiles and launchers, a mainstay of military assistance to Ukraine since 2018, as well as ammunition.

About $240 million of the $350 million in military assistance that was approved in late February has already been transferred to Ukraine, according to a senior defense official.

Russia’s siege of Mariupol a grim sign for other major Ukrainian cities

Those shipments are in addition to about $200 million in military assistance approved for Ukraine in late December that included M141 single-shot shoulder-launched rocket launchers, M500 shotguns, Mk-19 grenade launchers, M134 mini guns typically used for firing from helicopters, and protective suits for explosive ordnance disposal."

"In the last year, the United States has committed more than $1 billion in military assistance to Ukraine, the senior defense official said. That includes counter-mortar radars, secure radios, electronic equipment, medical equipment, vehicles and a steady supply of Javelin missile systems, according to the list The Post reviewed. At least nine Island-class patrol boats and five Mi-17 transport helicopters have also been provided to Ukraine from the U.S. reserve of excess defense articles.

Ukraine had previously received 210 Javelins through the State Department’s Foreign Military Financing program in 2018 and purchased an additional 150 Javelins that arrived in 2020.

The United States has committed about $3 billion in military aid to Ukraine since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014."

 

Given the apparent condition of the Russian army before they embarked on a major conflict, I'm skeptical the Russian nuclear forces are any better in the maintenance, logistics, and training departments.

If the balloon ever went up, they've got to be worried a large portion of their missiles fizzle out on the pad, like that one bad bottle rocket that's in every pack.

 

That seems likely, but they only need a small percentage of their stockpile.

 

Dachas in disarray!

 

It's dusty in here.

People around the world are booking Airbnbs in Ukraine. They don't plan to check in


"Airbnb hosts in Ukraine are being flooded with bookings from people all over the world who have no plans to visit. It's part of a creative social media campaign to funnel money to besieged Ukrainians who need financial assistance as Russian forces bombard their country and cut off services.

The idea has picked up momentum. On March 2 and March 3, guests from around the world booked more than 61,000 nights in Ukraine, according to an Airbnb spokesperson. More than half of those nights were booked by Americans, the spokesperson said."

 

Which is also why I’m not worried about ground invasion of the Baltic states anytime soon. This is Uncle Ivan’s last road show before a long rebuilding project. There are barely any conventional forces left to throw at another front, and what’s left is so rotten even Madison Cawthorn might refuse to punch it.

 

Brittney Griner could very well have been set up, but her being detained isn't exactly the U.S. embassy in Tehran.
She made a choice to go to Russia.
She made a choice to go to Russia with a vape.
She made a choice to go to Russia with a vape containing cannabis oil.

Break any link in that chain, and she isn't detained in Russia.