Ukraine Always Get What You Want

Russia-Ukraine War

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/ukraine-russia/

Russia-Ukraine war latest: Russia launches airstrikes into Kyiv and warns of further attacks – live

 

Ce n'est pas rien.

Ukraine anger as Macron says 'Don't humiliate Russia'

Ukraine's foreign minister has hit out at French President Emmanuel Macron after he said it was vital that Russia was not humiliated over its invasion.

Mr Macron said it was crucial President Vladimir Putin had a way out of what he called a "fundamental error".

But Dmytro Kuleba said allies should "better focus on how to put Russia in its place" as it "humiliates itself".

Mr Macron has repeatedly spoken to Mr Putin by phone in an effort to broker a ceasefire and negotiations.

 

Macron is wrong

 

"Flamethrower" in that it is a multiple rocket launcher that fires hyperbaric missiles.

This is why you want self propelled artillery. Fire a volley, button up fast, and move out of the area. The faster you do it the higher your chances of living.

 

Interesting thread.

 

About 40 percent true and 60 percent wishful thinking, seems to me.

 

I repeat my assertion from the beginning of the war. Russia is botching what should be the comparatively easy part. The much bigger challenge is administering newly-won territory and bringing the restive population to heal. Now even the ethnic Russians in far eastern Ukraine - who were supposed to be uncle Vlad’s version of “They will greet us as liberators” - despise the red army.

 

They've made their plan pretty clear. Massacre followed by forced resettlement in the endless reaches of Russia east of the Urals. Putin is a deranged war criminal. The civilized world should put a price on his head.

 

Putin's heal turn would be a thing to see.

 

Ukraine's three biggest problems, IMO, are:
1) They cannot seriously take the war to Russia. Other than some minor border raids, they don't have the capability of conquering vast swaths of Russian territory and breaking Russian will to make them capitulate.
2) At the same time, they absolutely have to push Russia out of all of their territory. Anything less is a Russian victory and just resets the clock on doing this all over again.
3) Ukraine will only be able to fight the war as long as the West allows. They might not be wholly reliant on Western funding, arms and aid at this point, but they've got to be pretty close. If any of those sources of assistance falter — and there are enough storm clouds on the horizon to see how they might — Ukraine is pretty screwed. They'll be able to fight a guerilla war for decades as long as their national will allows but they'll have a hard time maintaining their current level of organized resistance.

All three of those things mean we're going to come down to a game of chicken.
Russia basically needs to burn down the world's economy — choke off energy reserves, cause a famine, cause intense economic hardship — to force the West to stop bankrolling Ukraine.
The West needs to get the full time-delay effect of sanctions to kick in on Russia, in the hopes it will no longer be able to fund its operations; or in the hopes that the dual effects of economic hardship and human losses force some sort of mass uprising within the country that pushes Putin out of power, similar to World War I.
Whichever side falters first in its resolve or abilities, loses.

In any event, there aren't going to be any winners when this is all said and done. Not Ukraine. Not Russia. Not any of us.

 

Russia lost another general.

Russian general killed in eastern Ukraine, Russian state media reporter says