Ukraine Always Get What You Want

Link?

 

It is only CNN which doesn't make it any closer to the truth so who knows how much they stretched the truth of what's going on there.

 

Feels a little weird from CNN. Even the map that report shows amounts to a sliver of a foothold across the river.

 

BBC a little more concise calling it a "foothold" across the river

Ukraine in maps: Tracking the war with Russia

 

Damn, even a foothold or beachhead or bridgehead or whatever you want to call it is amazing progress while nobody was looking and Gaza got all the attention. Ukraine is that close to pinching off Russia’s land bridge.

 

They've been across the river since before the Gaza shit hit the fan; I guess the news here is that all sides are acknowledging it, and that it's more than just a recon in force.

But crossing that river is a long ways from taking back Crimea. It's like proclaiming Germany conquered on D-Day.

 

They've raided across the river. Taking and holding ground, then pushing in reinforcements, is different. Let's see how long they can hold the position and how many troops they can move in.

 

A gap crossing doesn't mean anything unless you can sustain it.

 

Nothings going to change unless Ukraine can create an actual breakthrough, and get armored reserves in to exploit.

They’re not going to be able to retake their country five yards at a time.

 

Finally saw the map. The invasion of Crimea is a tad premature, according to it. The Ukrainians have a long ways to go.

And yes, the trans-Dnieper beachhead is an inflection point in the war. But the fact that the Odesa grain ports are open is a victory in itself and a testament to Ukraine's vastly-improved (and mostly land-based) sea defense because their navy is essentially nil.

When the Kerch Bridge finally goes ka-blooey for good, you'll know the Crimea offensive is on like Donkey Kong.

 

Beau was beating the drum on some British intel analysis he saw. The rate of missile strikes and drone attacks by the Russians has fallen way off. There was speculation of manufacturing issues, shortage of parts, etc. The Brits think that what is happening is that the Rus are saving up all of their production until winter, and they plan to use them to attack Ukranian electric generating plants once it's good and cold.

Sounds right.

 

The Brits may be right, but nobody ever got anywhere assuming that Russia has some overarching strategy in mind. It’s just as possible that the Russian war “machine” is collapsing.