Vegas bound. Any ideas?

Yeah, I know the odds are against us, we're not supposed to win. And I've lost plenty of times. I get the 6-to-5 payoffs on blackjacks.
It just seems, over the past few years, to be worse than before.

 

Ebb & Flow. Ebb & flow. Rules have gotten screwed down tight (in particular on the Strip...which is why we play at the locals & downtown), but it's an ebb & flow game.

After three days, I'm still up for this trip. Not playing any better than I did the previous three trips (over the previous 18 months), where I got the living dogsh*t kicked out of me. But, I'm just catching better cards.

On a different note, just played 3 consecutive sit & go NLH tourneys this evening, at the god awful Plaza (downtown). Place may be ugly, but had a GREAT time. All three were $35 buy-ins...cashed in one, came out ahead for the evening. Drank.....well, plenty. The Strip is still the Strip...but lord HELP me, I love playing downtown. That's just about scary people, alcohol & gambling. Good for the soul

 

Just back from Vegas myself. First night there, at the Palozzo went on a major run at the Blackjack table. As is my custom, got up pretty big (about 700) and decided to take my winnings to the craps table. It's always been my custom to try to get up on BJ and then go to craps where I can turn modest winnings into something very nice. I cashed out that night up well over double what I started with.

Of course, over the next few nights, I gave a chunk of it back. I also noticed a horrible trend of me losing or pushing with 20. I played at TheHotel and Mandalay last Saturday night and got absolutely slaughtered. I never had a play better than a double on a 9 against a 6 and most of my cards were straight from the R Kelly collection (12,13,14). Just brutal. Ran into the same at the Bellagio the night before. Went back to Palozzo the final night and got some back and was actually up a healthy amount for the trip when I came back.

 

Well technically you could make a move that completely throws the deck into a tailspin and screws the table for the entire shoe. And by screw I mean help the dealer hit 20s and 21s instead of busting. However, it could also throw the deck in your favor, and you just never know. And yes, I will bitch at the guy next to me if he stays on a 15 because he doesn't know what the fuck he is doing.

When I was in Vegas in May I was sitting at a late night blackjack table with a few guys who were playing like high rollers. One guy was a big tan, Mr. Clean loooking dude, with bulging muscles and a shiny dome. He was betting $100 a hand, doubling down, splitting and just doing all kinds of crazy shit. He had a prostitute on his arm and thought he was tough shit.

Every so often he would go in and bet $500 a hand. One time, he was on 15 and didn't hit. He stood there forever as he made his decision. I told him not to be influenced by the cash he had on the table. Of course he was. He stayed out of fear of busting and the dealer grabbed a 6 on the hit card. BOOM, 21!

He started cursing at me, and I just starred at him like the fucking moron he was. Next time around, he gets a 20... stands up and starts celebrating. The guy is hootin' and hollerin' about how he won. Dealer then grabs a 21 again. And that's when I stood up and told im if he wasn't such an idiot he would have just won $1,500 instead of losing $1,000. Of course, this sent him into a rage which normally would scare me, but by that time I had already gestured to the security cameras... I was fairly confident there were suits sitting somewhere behind me.

 

I don't say anything to folks who play BJ stupidly, but I might get up and leave.

And not hitting on 15 is far from the worst I have seen. Hell, that's practically standard.

 

Making the wrong move will change what cards come out for the rest of the night. So will making the right move. So will a slight gust of air moving the cards slightly while they are being shuffled. So will tipping the dealer an extra chip so he moves his arm in a slightly different way before shuffling.

None of this changes the odds of which card is coming out of the shoe next.

 

This. also beware of dealers hitting soft 17s, and surrender being refused. rational or not, i think a lot of the losing (me included) comes from autodealer games. Won't play 'em. And not to tell you our business (HAH!) your smaller bets when losing should be the smallest bets allowed.

 

If the dealer pulled a six to hit 21, that would mean dealer has 5 showing. If I have 15, I stand against his 5 a thousand times out of a hundred.

 

I understand what y'all are saying, but I do believe the third baseman can affect specific hands.
Impossible to know how their play affects the rest of the deck/shoe, but from a hand-to-hand basis, they do affect the outcome.
My ideal table is sit next to the third baseman, who looks like he/she knows what they're doing and has a pile of chips in front of them.
Anybody use betting systems?
I once read about a 1, 2, 3, 5 system and try to use it. It gets adjusted pending doubles/splits/gut feelings.