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What a $200/Barrel World Looks Like

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by Lugnuts, Jun 1, 2008.

  1. JR

    JR Well-Known Member

    Fucking classic, Boom. That may be your greatest post ever.

    As a former colleague once said of another co-worker, "Ask Gord for a needle and thread and he'll knit you a sweater"
     
  2. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member


    Boom: Time has stopped. Goldman Sachs has cornered the time market.

    Ragu: What the hell are you talking about?

    Boom: Have you ever heard of a guy named Henry Blodget? Boy, are you naive.
     
  3. JayFarrar

    JayFarrar Well-Known Member

    I like it when Boom and Ragu fight.
    Makes for some quality posts.

    I always thought that, as a rule, whenever America got serious talks going on oil conservation, alternate fuels, etc., that the Saudis and the other OPECians started sending out more oil to lower prices here.
    Can anyone explain, and Rags I'm looking at you, if that is right and why it hasn't happened yet?
     
  4. Inky_Wretch

    Inky_Wretch Well-Known Member

    I'll take a stab at it ... because America hasn't gotten serious about conservation and alternative fuels.
     
  5. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    Jay, Not that I know of. Historically, when OPEC has smelled blood and the opportunity to make $$, they have squeezed the world. In 1979, when the Ayatollah took over in Iran and prices went through the roof because Iran's spigot went dry (although it is kind of quaint that we were getting hammered by the difference between a $15 and $35 barrel, when it is around $126 today), among other things Jimmy Carter did during his malaise speech was tell people to turn down their thermostats. It was just empty talk that had no affect on the market. He also installed solar panels on the White House roof and added a wood-burning fire stove, again meaningless symbols. We had gas rationing and OPEC had our nuts in a vice. We couldn't talk our way out of that.

    As near as I can tell, rhetoric had/has no affect on the cartel. They are simply doing things to try to earn as much money as they can. Words don't affect demand. Purchasing power affects demand.

    People start conserving, or consuming less, when they can't afford to consume more.

    Once again, though, even when it comes to rhetoric, the U.S. is participating in a global market. Our rhetoric only has so much effect on anything, and less and less so as other countries such as Brazil, India, China, etc. become more prominent in the energy markets.
     
  6. JayFarrar

    JayFarrar Well-Known Member

    Interesting. I don't know where I heard that, but it was one of those things that I always took as gospel.
     
  7. JackS

    JackS Member

    I just question whether there is any kind of conspiracy on how much they're pumping, which is how I interpreted (perhaps incorrectly) your use of the word "limiting."

    The way I see it, they're just pumping what they physically can--and hot damn how's this for luck--global demand pretty much allows them to charge whatever they want.
     
  8. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    Jack, It isn't a conspiracy. It's right out there in the open. The oil producing countries have a cartel. And they know they are a cartel. When demand is strong, as it is for oil, a cartel can make more money by limiting how much it supplies. They have no competition. They sell less, but they make a much higher profit on what they do sell and earn more overall. Demand is so strong, and supply is so inadequate, that those demanding it bid up the price when they compete against each other for what is available.

    OPEC is capable of drilling more and flooding the market with oil to meet demand. They'd make a lot less money doing that, though.

    Did you see the stories last month or the month before, when Bush was in Saudi Arabia with his hat in hand begging them to drill more and they laughed at him? It was stupid on his part. It made us look feckless (which we are... but we don't have to SHOW it).

    What is different now is that worldwide demand for energy has soared in the last decade. So they have a more frenzied market to exploit. And that is why we are feeling the squeeze.
     
  9. Boom_70

    Boom_70 Well-Known Member

    RE'S WHY US CONSUMERS ARE RUNNING OUT OF GAS

    By JOHN CRUDELE

    June 3, 2008 -- I'D like to share with you a note I received on May 22 from a reader, who observed that a spike in oil prices happened after T. Boone Pickens appeared on TV talking about oil soon hitting new heights.

    "The fact is, Pickens is heavily invested in natural gas and unconventional crude sources, like oil sands, and has a direct stake in seeing conventional crude prices go as high as possible. This information is easily obtained," and yet reporters never stated that Pickens "has a direct and very substantial interest in seeing oil prices spike."

    That e-mail came from Frank Gallagher, a reader in Maine who is also a spokesman for heating oil dealers throughout the east coast.

    You will recall in a column I wrote last week, I described a conversation I had with Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer, and his belief that his state has as much as 40 billion barrels of untapped oil - which, of course, is very good news.

    Also good news is that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission last week announced that it was finally looking into manipulation of the energy markets.

    In fact, the CFTC said the investigation began last December.

    I've been screaming about manipulation of the energy markets for a long time.


    Traders on Wall Street have been pushing up the price of so-called "paper barrels" of oil in order to reap the big profits that can no longer be gotten by speculating in stocks or real estate.

    But in their greed, oil speculators have caused the world's energy costs to soar, have goosed inflation in all segments of the economy, and have caused financial conditions to deteriorate so badly that consumers are in their glummest mood since the Great Depression.

    This is a game that professional speculators play all the time until someone stops them.

    Wall Street convinced Americans in the late 1990s that stocks would never go down in price.

    The stock market, of course, did. Next it was real estate's turn. A house was a great investment that could never lose value. That, too, was a lie.

    Now it's oil's turn.


    But why start this column with a complaint against the media?

    Because the manipulation of the oil market - any market - wouldn't be happening if the media were more diligent, careful and smarter about what it presents to the public as truth.

    There are at least two sides to every investment story.

    Bubbles are exciting and it's easy for the press to get caught up in them. But the media hasn't been doing its job and people are getting hurt.

    Pickens, as Gallagher correctly explained, isn't an objective observer of the oil markets.

    He's always been a profiteer, and a good one at that.

    Back in the 1980s Pickens' tiny Mesa Petroleum successfully staged raids on a number of America's foremost energy companies.

    And Pickens, before he attained guru status, made many journalists (me included) believe that he really wanted to purchase Gulf Oil, and Phillips Petroleum and Unocal.

    But it turns out Pickens was just as happy earning a hefty profit when these oil companies wiggled away.

    To be fair, Pickens isn't the only one who has been successfully pushing oil higher.

    Goldman Sachs, with its ex-chairman now in charge of the US Treasury, along with a number of other influential Wall Street firms are constantly forecasting higher energy prices, oblivious to the fact that demand for gasoline and oil is dropping because of the poor economy.

    So what's the real truth?

    According to the US Energy Information Administration, the price of gas has risen 73 cents a gallon over the past year even though there is currently 2.5 percent more gasoline in storage.

    And there's just 2.5 percent more gasoline available because producers - whose profit margins are being squeezed because of Wall Street speculation - are only using refineries at 87.9 percent of their capacity.

    Normally, refineries would be working at well over 90 percent capacity at this time of year.

    Crude stockpiles are down 10 percent but that's because there was too much oil being stored this time last year, according to the EIA.

    Today's crude stockpiles are at historical averages.


    Now let me ask you, when was the last time you heard any media outlet tell you that there's too much gasoline and that prices ought to be coming down?
     
  10. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    Pickens has made billions (yes, billions) investing in oil and natural gas the last two years.

    BP capital, his hedge fund, is long in both crude and natural gas right now, so if you go by where he is putting his money, he believes the price is going to keep appreciating. The guy invests so much that is impossible for him to do anything without everyone seeing it. He has publicly stated that he believes crude is going to hit $150 in 2008.

    I'll point out that that story makes the point I did when you made a claim on another thread that someone was manipulating the oil market... reserves are at historical averages. So no one is hording the world's oil, as you suggested on that thread.

    If the NY Post's esteemed business section is correct, though, and there is some kind of bubble based on irrational exuberance, it will pop--soon.

    I'll gladly bet you, though, that the price is just headed up, and that we approach $200 a barrel in the next year and a half to two years.

    I wouldn't run out and short crude oil futures based on what John Crudele writes in the NY Post. But feel free to, and please let us know when the margin calls come in.
     
  11. Boom_70

    Boom_70 Well-Known Member

    I've never suggested that OPEC is hording oil. The hording is taken place after OPEC pumps the oil out of the ground. It sits on ships in the gulf as price goes up.

    You are the one who has suggested that OPEC is limiting supply when the actual numbers show that you are not accurate.



    Did you notice what Crudele wrote about Goldman?
     
  12. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    Boom, Goldman (and everyone else researching the commodity) is forecasting higher prices because that is the outlook based on supply and demand factors. Jeez. If they are wrong, the price should have come crashing down two years ago as it was shooting up from $35 a barrel to $125 a barrel. It will certainly come crashing down before it keeps going up toward that $200 a barrel threshold, if they are wrong.

    You haven't said anything except, "The market is wrong."

    No, the market isn't wrong. If it was, there wouldn't be buyers and sellers at the current price.

    And your statement is just flat out wrong. OPEC sets quotas for how much oil it pumps (and it has cut back on how much it is sending into the marketplace right now). That is why OPEC exists! Jeez.

    If the market is so wrong, I will beg you once again to start shorting oil futures.

    Good luck with that.
     
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