Will COVID-19 be the needle that finally bursts the sports bubble?

I've got a feeling that it's going to be a long time before we have to worry about that.

 

There has been a lot of talk about how a proper FBS playoff would hurt the player's academics. I just point at the baseball schedules and snicker aloud at that one.

 

Models I've seen for Washington, California, Arizona, Colorado and Oregon show no deaths by the first week of June. New York shows no deaths by mid-May. Of course, they had governors who were proactive.

I'm sure there are other projection sites that are not as optimistic. But right now, I'm in an any port in a storm mood.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

 

Sure - But I think there's going to be something like, 0 cases in a state, before they open it up. Or like, dwindling into the single digits, they people are in a strict quarantine. You hope that with future outbreaks, say that case in Nigeria as you bring up, people just say, "Fuck this" and basically quarantine the country until they get it under control. Or, that a vaccine is developed, or more is uncovered about the virus that reduces the mortality rate. But as is, I don't think people are going to be as eager to get back to work as you think. (Or if they are, it's going to be a sharp thing along class lines.)

 

Generally I think if you work in a service industry, like a restaurant or nail salon, etc., or if you're self-employed, you'll be champing at the bit to get back to work ASAP. I supposed rich people won't be in a hurry. The other 95%, many who work paycheck-to-paycheck, probably will.

Only 500 or 600 cases nationwide is 10-12 per state. To me that's an acceptable risk.

 

That’s gonna take a very long time to get to.

 

It's different for colleges. In loco parentis and all that. But the pro sports can go ahead on the grounds everyone involved is an adult with free will.

 

The Jazz lay off staff. NBA teams -- every team in the major sports -- make their nut before a single game is played. Fcuk Larry Miller.

 

Not really into necrophilia, actually.

 

What do the experts say? I have been searching on this for a week and I can't find a straight answer to these two questions:
1) When can we set a countdown clock for the end of stay-at-home measures? After we've passed the peak of case counts or death totals, which would come by the end of April? Or must we wait to start the countdown clock until after the last death has occurred, which is on or about July 15?
2) How long would the countdown clock be set for?
In other words, how long after we get over the worst of it must social distancing and other measures remain in place?