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It's going to be Serena, Spieth or both if they win their respective grand slams, the USWNT if neither does.
I honestly think it's going to go to a baseball player.
Honest question: Is Serena's competition better, worse or equal to Graf's?
I don't think I see anyone arguing that Serena would be undeserving. I think we're simply recognizing the reality that SI tends to follow the American public's lead and ignores tennis. Federer reached 18 of 19 Grand Slam finals from 2005-2010, broke the record for Grand Slam championships and still never got SOY.
SI could surprise us, but I doubt Serena gets it.
OK, I'm curious, why?
Because I was thinking precisely the opposite--baseball's likely the one sport we can rule out--given that they never give it to an athlete from the same sport two years in a row (Bumgarner won last year) and this year offers such rich alternative choices (triple crown, tennis and golf grand slams, curry's season, world cup gold, etc.). What would make you think it'll be consecutive baseball years?
They could put any horse on the cover, call it American Pharoah and NO one would know the difference.
Federer also managed one French Open win in that span. Just one. He was really impressive for that span, but Nadal on that clay was his Achilles Heel.
I think the Serena competition question is the same thing golf fans hold against.
Is Serena really that dominant, or does her competition suck? Maybe a little of both. I'm inclined to believe she's more dominant than anything else. At this point the only beating her is injury or age.
OBTW, this is the second time Williams has all four major titles at one time.