For the degenerates: CBS Sports Parlay Pick'em zaniness

[Captain_Kirk]

So, I signed up for the CBS Sports Parlay Pick em contest at the beginning of the year. You pick one NFL parlay per week against the odds, anywhere from 2 to all of the games. Figured I try some 3-4 team parlays and see how I do. Actually hit a 3 teamer in week 1 and a 5 teamer this week, so not bad overall.

Well, that puts me light years behind the leaders:

Week 1: some guy hits a 16 for 16 parlay. Missed out on claiming the $100,000 prize for a perfect 16 for 16 parlay card because he didn't hit all 3 of the extra 'bonus' picks correct. (Pretty cheap, Yahoo--if someone goes 16 for 16, you ought to pony up). However,

Over the course of the season, there have been 19 parlays of 10 teams or more. Six have gone 14 for 14; 4 have gone 13 for 13. Just this week, four went 14 for 14 and 2 went 13 for 13 (didn't make a selection on last night's game).

I realize there's a random possibility where someone can go on a website and just click on the right selection in that many games, but I'm just blown away there have been that many. And I don't think it's like there are millions of entries going through each week. Prior to this week with my measly 12 points, I was like 1,200th in the standings.

And if any of these 19 live in a state that allows sports betting, what kind of payday could they have collected (or are they kicking themselves for forgoing). A $10 bet would be some life changing money on a 13 to 14 team parlay, assuming you can even do those.

Damn, I've just been blown away by all this.

 

[TheSportsPredictor]

Did this guy enter?

$672K in 3 Weeks: Meet 'Parlay Patz', the 23-Year-Old Bettor Who's on the Heater of a Lifetime | The Action Network

 

[playthrough]

Hitting 16-for-16 but not getting paid for missing "bonus" picks is downright embarrassing behavior by whoever ran that contest. If this wasn't the dark world of gambling, there would be more of an uproar. Like if some old lady had a perfect score in a cooking contest and didn't get paid for some fine-print reason, the outrage would be so massive that she'd eventually get her money.

Maybe there aren't millions of entries, but there's definitely enough to create a variance where someone will have a perfect score (just like someone will go 0-for-16, which seems almost more impossible though of course it's statistically the same). I'm kind of immune to these stories, having followed that world for a while. "Parlay Patz" better have most of his winnings in the bank and consider walking away from his parlaying career soon. I remember there was a guy who parlayed and hit something like the Patriots winning the Super Bowl, Alabama winning the national title and Sergio winning the Masters -- that's some skill, creativity and fearlessness that I'll tip my hat for. A lot of successful wiseguys might keep the occasional 2- or 3-team parlay in their portfolio but when you're getting into 10 or more it's just a powerball ticket with team names.

 

[Batman]

Hitting 16-for-16 but not getting paid for missing "bonus" picks is downright embarrassing behavior by whoever ran that contest. If this wasn't the dark world of gambling, there would be more of an uproar. Like if some old lady had a perfect score in a cooking contest and didn't get paid for some fine-print reason, the outrage would be so massive that she'd eventually get her money.

Maybe there aren't millions of entries, but there's definitely enough to create a variance where someone will have a perfect score (just like someone will go 0-for-16, which seems almost more impossible though of course it's statistically the same). I'm kind of immune to these stories, having followed that world for a while. "Parlay Patz" better have most of his winnings in the bank and consider walking away from his parlaying career soon. I remember there was a guy who parlayed and hit something like the Patriots winning the Super Bowl, Alabama winning the national title and Sergio winning the Masters -- that's some skill, creativity and fearlessness that I'll tip my hat for. A lot of successful wiseguys might keep the occasional 2- or 3-team parlay in their portfolio but when you're getting into 10 or more it's just a powerball ticket with team names.

Yeah, every time I see one of those headlines screaming "Podunk man wins $500,000 on $5 bet!" I know exactly what it is. Dude got lucky as heck and drilled a parlay that included about 15 teams and a couple of long shot money line odds. If you ever hit one of those, you need to retire on the spot.
I play three-teamers all the time and win enough to realize it's not that difficult if you have enough games to choose from. I've played enough four-teamers to know that I need to stick to three-teamers. It seems like it'd be easy to connect those dots, but it's insanely difficult.

Closest I ever came to hitting a four-teamer was the last weekend of the 2018 college football season. Got the first three and was a play away from getting the fourth, and then Texas A&M got bailed out with an instant replay reversal and scored on the last play to send it to overtime against LSU. Seven overtimes later it thankfully ended in a push. Bastards.

 

[playthrough]

The Draft Kings app offers "parlay protection" -- make a five-team parlay and if you miss only one leg, they'll refund you in the form of a free bet. Sounds good unless you understand that hitting four out of five is darned hard. But the bookies sure hope you do 'cause then you'll chase it over and over again.

 

[JackReacher]

Over the years, I've hit like one 6-teamer and a handful of 5-teasers. I can't imagine hitting a 15-teamer, even once.

gosh darn.

 

[tapintoamerica]

Did this guy enter?

$672K in 3 Weeks: Meet 'Parlay Patz', the 23-Year-Old Bettor Who's on the Heater of a Lifetime | The Action Network

Last month, Patz hit a $1,800, 15-leg parlay for $239,000.
Does that mean he had to go 15-for-15 in order to collect anything? Or do you get something for going 12-3?

 

[playthrough]

Last month, Patz hit a $1,800, 15-leg parlay for $239,000.
Does that mean he had to go 15-for-15 in order to collect anything? Or do you get something for going 12-3?

Gotta hit 'em all. Some contests might pay a consolation prize for 14-of-15, but anything less is no dice. Yet if you had gone 12-3 with normal single-unit bets, you'd be killing it.

 

[Batman]

Gotta hit 'em all. Some contests might pay a consolation prize for 14-of-15, but anything less is no dice. Yet if you had gone 12-3 with normal single-unit bets, you'd be killing it.

You also would have to spend alot more to put down all of those bets, especially if you're looking for the same kind of return. Three $20 straight bets won't pay as much as winning one $10, four-team parlay.
The key with parlays is to break them up into chunks. Never try to hit the home run with a 10-teamer unless you're doing it purely for shirts and giggles. Go with three three-teamers instead, which obviously wouldn't pay as much but are much, much easier to hit.

 

[justgladtobehere]

Is the CBS game straight up? I cannot see the rules before registering with the site.

That Patz article has a strong air of bullshirt.

 

[Captain_Kirk]

No, the CBS game is all against the spread. They make every game a half point number so there's no ties/pushes. So if the true line is -3, they make it -3.5.

 

[playthrough]

Is the CBS game straight up? I cannot see the rules before registering with the site.

That Patz article has a strong air of bullshirt.

Hitting a 15-teamer and a 13-teamer in one month does strain credulity. And it could be in the greater interest of "The Action Network" to have a less-than-thorough vetting process for massive win stories.