2013 MLB Regular Season running thread

[NDJournalist]

Is there a formula to factor in different roles people play on their team? I'm not asking to be a smartass.

If a rightfielder batting seventh puts up the same numbers as third baseman hitting cleanup is their value the same? Is there a formula to measure the defensive contributions of players at different positions? How does the best middle reliever compare in value to the best offensive player?

Again, I'm not asking to be snarky. If anybody besides NDJournalist knows the answer I'm interested.

WAR does this all and why is my answer not relevant?

because you are an STD

False.

 

[Uncle.Ruckus]

No, I'm pretty sure Herpes is an STD.

 

[buckweaver]

If a guy has a great ERA and a bad record I can figure out what the deal is. Maybe a players batting average and RBI total don't tell me everything, but it tells me a lot. I'd rather watch games and see that a guy is hitting the ball, but his teammates aren't getting on base than do math homework to figure it out.

Here's my only issue with that argument:

Earned Run Average = 9 * ((RA - UER) / IP)

Batting Average = (1B + 2B + 3B + HR) / (PA - BB - HBP - SF - SH)

These are not simple formulas. And it took many decades and arguments to determine exactly what goes into the denominators for those stats. And yet, these are considered "traditional" stats that are intuitive to just about every baseball fan today.

What makes you think that won't also be true for WAR or FIP or some yet-to-be-invented defensive metric in another 20 years?

Most stats do tell us what we already can see with our eyes. I don't need a number to know that Yu Darvish dominated the Angels last night. But often, our eyes and memories are wrong and that's where numbers can be extremely helpful.

 

[peacer84]

If a guy has a great ERA and a bad record I can figure out what the deal is. Maybe a players batting average and RBI total don't tell me everything, but it tells me a lot. I'd rather watch games and see that a guy is hitting the ball, but his teammates aren't getting on base than do math homework to figure it out.

Here's my only issue with that argument:

Batting Average = (1B + 2B + 3B + HR) / (PA - BB - HBP - SF - SH)

Or you know...

Hits divided by at-bats

 

[buckweaver]

Hits divided by at-bats

Exactly my point. It's easy now.

But it took baseball people 50 years to define an "at-bat."

 

[Michael_ Gee]

BuckW, that's an excellent point. I would be ashamed to admit how long it took in my life before I could do ERA in my head. For most of it, I just knew lower was better. That's how it will become for fans with the newer stats, too. They'll assimilate that lower or higher means good, establish a baseline number in their heads, and VORP will be just like RBI, an acronym everybody understands.
Of course, by then there will be new and controversial acronyms.

 

[NDJournalist]

If a guy has a great ERA and a bad record I can figure out what the deal is. Maybe a players batting average and RBI total don't tell me everything, but it tells me a lot. I'd rather watch games and see that a guy is hitting the ball, but his teammates aren't getting on base than do math homework to figure it out.

Here's my only issue with that argument:

Batting Average = (1B + 2B + 3B + HR) / (PA - BB - HBP - SF - SH)

Or you know...

Hits divided by at-bats

But even judging whether a pitcher is good or not based on ERA is problematic. Mark Buehrle possesses a 5.87 ERA through four starts. But the BABIP against him is .342 and his FIP is 4.15. So while he hasn't pitched great, by any means, he's been extremely unlucky and his ERA will probably start to dip downward if the Jays' defense gets its stuff together and if Buehrle's unluckiness levels off.

 

[NDJournalist]

Hawk Harrelson on sabermetrics:

.be

 

[Football_Bat]

Anyone with a K/9 of under 1.0 is dogging it.

 

[Jake_Taylor]

If a guy has a great ERA and a bad record I can figure out what the deal is. Maybe a players batting average and RBI total don't tell me everything, but it tells me a lot. I'd rather watch games and see that a guy is hitting the ball, but his teammates aren't getting on base than do math homework to figure it out.

Here's my only issue with that argument:

Earned Run Average = 9 * ((RA - UER) / IP)

Batting Average = (1B + 2B + 3B + HR) / (PA - BB - HBP - SF - SH)

These are not simple formulas. And it took many decades and arguments to determine exactly what goes into the denominators for those stats. And yet, these are considered "traditional" stats that are intuitive to just about every baseball fan today.

What makes you think that won't also be true for WAR or FIP or some yet-to-be-invented defensive metric in another 20 years?

Most stats do tell us what we already can see with our eyes. I don't need a number to know that Yu Darvish dominated the Angels last night. But often, our eyes and memories are wrong and that's where numbers can be extremely helpful.

I wouldn't call it an argument, more an explanation of a personal preference. Other than that I don't really disagree with anything you said. I'm sure in 20 years I'll be as familiar and comfortable with the newer stats as I am with ERA and batting average today. But for right now I just haven't been inclined to learn what all the acronyms mean and how they are figured and it hasn't hampered my enjoyment.

 

[Songbird]

Maybe it's been discussed here, but has anyone seen the ads - or watched the show itself - for MLB Network's Harold Reynolds-Brian Kenny debate show, "MLB NOW"? I don't know how the show itself plays out, but the commercials are an abortion. Basically, it's pitched as a clash between sabermetrics and "old-school," a clash that isn't really taking place any more. Both guys act out total stereotypes, as if they cribbed the working script from "Trouble With the Curve." What's more, it pits the nerdy analytics guy against the dumb jock, who also happens to be a black-skinned savage. Nice work.

I heard he was an Epsilon who matured in a decanting bottle.

 

[Uncle.Ruckus]

How many times are you going to quote your own post, Herpes?