2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Running Thread

[MisterCreosote]

That looks like it's going awfully close to the ABC Islands. That doesn't happen very often.

In fact, the last time I was in Aruba, I think someone said the last time a hurricane came close was more than a century ago.

 

[Driftwood]

That's not good. Surface water temperatures in the Atlantic and particularly in the Gulf are not looking favorable for beach dwellers this summer and fall.*

*(Based on the data we accumulated from planes, ships and land positions previous to having weather satellites that could see hurricanes that far out in the Atlantic, which is pretty much everything before the Nimbus program in the mid-60s.)

Far from scientific, but data personally collected by me using my instaread cooking thermometer.
Saturday, June 29 7:25 p.m.
Mid Atlantic - 1 hour, 22 minutes before low tide
Air temp: 82.8
Water temp (measured in approx 10 inches): 87.4

 

[2muchcoffeeman]

That looks like it's going awfully close to the ABC Islands. That doesn't happen very often.

In fact, the last time I was in Aruba, I think someone said the last time a hurricane came close was more than a century ago.

The projections I've seen suggest that Beryl will get an injection of dry air from South America and then run into upper-level wind shear.

 

[Twirling Time]

The projections I've seen suggest that Beryl will get an injection of dry air from South America and then run into upper-level wind shear.

That might explain why the models drop it to lower-'cane status later in the week. Then we'll see what happens when it gets to the Gulf bathtub.

 

[Driftwood]

Beryl is already an unprecedented Cat 4 with winds at 130. That means Cat 5 is in play. It's not expected to make landfall anywhere until morning. It won't lose much steam going across the patch of islands it will, so it will continue being a big boy all the way across the Caribbean.

 

[Twirling Time]

GFS model already has it aimed right at Corpus Christi. That isn't a good path.

ADD: The saving grace is all the models I see have it crossing the Yucatan, so it'll lose a lot of its punch.

 

[Neutral Corner]

It's gonna be a long summer for folks who live on the Gulf Coast.

 

[Driftwood]

Bring on October.

 

[Driftwood]

Elvis sang Why Can't Every Day Be Like Christmas.
I say why can't every month be October: Good weather, good fishing, hurricane threat is greatly diminished, oyster roasts, college football.

 

[three_bags_full]

The bulk of the charts have it making US landfall between Brownsville and New Orleans. And as warm as the Gulf is, it will pick up steam pretty quickly after crossing the Yucatan.

I predict a strong Cat 3 between Corpus and Houston.

 

[Driftwood]

The bulk of the charts have it making US landfall between Brownsville and New Orleans. And as warm as the Gulf is, it will pick up steam pretty quickly after crossing the Yucatan.

I predict a strong Cat 3 between Corpus and Houston.

I don't know. We'll have to see. Most of the models I have have it downgrading by the time it hits the Yucatan, which will severely weaken it further. If it misses the Yucatan, then that's a different story.

 

[Twirling Time]

A lot of uncertainty 5-6 days out. The NOLA track is probably the worst-case scenario but, fortunately, is an outlier.

The models mostly agree it'll scrape past Jamaica and hit the Yucatan, but after that all bets are off.