The Inevitable Mitt Romney Tour Running Thread

[Bob Cook]

Figured, because I'm a sadist AND a masochist, start a new presidential running thread while we have a lull before Super Tuesday. Not that Mitt ain't winning.

I'll kick it off with this -- we have another Obama vs. Romney poll! (It's ABC/Washington Post, saying Obama is up among registed voters, 51-45.) Polls don't mean a whole heck of a lot this far out, but this nugget struck me as interesting. It's part of the explanation for why Romney is start to flag, at least in general-election terms:

Notably, 52 percent in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, say the more they hear about Romney the less they like him - double the number who like him more.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=15519812#.TzAfdcWXRDn

Obama's fortunes could swing downward again tomorrow if there's lousy economic news. But, man oh man, that gap between those who like Romney less and those who like him more the more they hear him seems like a serious problem for Mittens. What say you, oh political sages of SportsJournalists.com?

 

[I Should Coco]

Skimming through that story, what struck me is there's a heck of a long way to go before the election.

If the economic outlook -- especially the declining unemployment rate -- continues to brighten, Romney has almost no chance.

But if things get rocky again economically -- a distinct possibility given Europe's financial instability and the worries of a Middle East war between Iran and Israel -- then the key question becomes if the nutty, right-wing tea partiers decide to get 100 percent behind Romney.

And as the poll notes, the more people find out about Mitt, the less they like him.

From what I'm seeing (*) here in Red Stateville (north Idaho), there is zero enthusiasm for Romney. Many rightwingers might just sit this one out and grumble their way through four more years.


* -- I'm not a political scientist, but I occasionally play one on SportsJournalists.com ...

EDIT: I shouldn't have said "nutty," because that could be applied to plenty of lefties I've known, too. But as Obama's popularity continues to rise, that fringe of the political spectrum will be completely ignored by Democrats in 2012.

 

[Uncle.Ruckus]

CHART: GOP turnout plummets in New Hampshire (-16%), Florida (-14%) and Nevada (-26%).

http://t.co/roqQOcgX

And to paraphrase a friend: In other words, fewer people have turned out to vote for Mitt Romney than last time, when he lost to the guy who lost to Barack Obama.

Four More Years!

 

[LongTimeListener]

Skimming through that story, what struck me is there's a heck of a long way to go before the election.

If the economic outlook -- especially the declining unemployment rate -- continues to brighten, Romney has almost no chance.

But if things get rocky again economically -- a distinct possibility given Europe's financial instability and the worries of a Middle East war between Iran and Israel -- then the key question becomes if the nutty, right-wing tea partiers decide to get 100 percent behind Romney.

And as the poll notes, the more people find out about Mitt, the less they like him.

From what I'm seeing (*) here in Red Stateville (north Idaho), there is zero enthusiasm for Romney. Many rightwingers might just sit this one out and grumble their way through four more years.


* -- I'm not a political scientist, but I occasionally play one on SportsJournalists.com ...

I was just going to post about that. It seems like Romney is more popular in every state until he actually arrives in the state and people get a look and listen at him. Maybe the Jim Nantz of politics.

 

[Stitch]

An acquaintance of mine is a big Santorum supporter and considers himself an expert in political thought. I don't know how he can say with a straight face that Santorum would beat Obama. He cites a few polls that show Santorum beating Obama, but his blinders are on too tightly to notice the real mood of the electorate.

 

[TigerVols]

It's pretty easy to take Friday's surprisingly good economic numbers, couple them with voters learning more about Mormon Mittens and his millions stashed in off-shore bank accounts, and assume Obama will win by at least 5 points.

But as has been noted above, November is ages away. Lots of time for 3 things to tank Obama's re-election hopes: 1. A European collapse that brings the US economy along with it; 2. A Middle East conflagration of some sort; and 3. the huge unknown (for example, this time last year, a tsunami and a Arab Spring were on the way).

 

[TigerVols]

An acquaintance of mine is a big Santorum supporter and considers himself an expert in political thought. I don't know how he can say with a straight face that Santorum would beat Obama. He cites a few polls that show Santorum beating Obama, but his blinders are on too tightly to notice the real mood of the electorate.

Given that he continues to equate breast cancer with abortion, I'm guessing he may lose out on some key demographics. Namely, virtually all women.

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/02/05/santorum-suggests-abortion-causes-breast-cancer/

 

[Michael_ Gee]

British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan was asked what would determine the country's political future. "Events, dear boy, events," he answered.

 

[LongTimeListener]

It's pretty easy to take Friday's surprisingly good economic numbers, couple them with voters learning more about Mormon Mittens and his millions stashed in off-shore bank accounts, and assume Obama will win by at least 5 points.

But as has been noted above, November is ages away. Lots of time for 3 things to tank Obama's re-election hopes: 1. A European collapse that brings the US economy along with it; 2. A Middle East conflagration of some sort; and 3. the huge unknown (for example, this time last year, a tsunami and a Arab Spring were on the way).

The economy is the #1 issue, but I do think Obama's peeps have been able to assign enough blame to an obstinate GOP Congress, and to corporate overlords who look very much like Willard Romney, that the administration won't own all of the blame on that one.

 

[Hokie_pokie]

Obama will beat Romney because he is much better at pretending he cares about the "99 percent" than Romney is.

Then again, it's hard to be less tuned-in to the plight of the common man than Romney unless your name is George Herbert Walker Bush.

 

[EStreetJoe]

It's pretty easy to take Friday's surprisingly good economic numbers, couple them with voters learning more about Mormon Mittens and his millions stashed in off-shore bank accounts, and assume Obama will win by at least 5 points.

How many electoral votes does 5 percentage points equal?

 

[EStreetJoe]

Don't forget the Super-Bowl factors in determining Presidential elections.

1) Last time the Giants won the Super Bowl, Obama won the presidency
2) In the 7 times NFC has won the Super Bowl in an election year, Democrats are 3-4 at winning the general election (but 3-1 since '92) in the 4 times the AFC has won the Super Bowl during an election year the Democrats are 1-3 at taking the White House.