NBA Playoffs Thread

[BrianGriffin]

Regular season records: Heat 58-24, Mavs 57-25. Head-to-Head: Mavs 2-0.

Postseason records: Heat 14-6, Mavs 15-5.

What --- other than preseason expectations that months ago proved to be horribly off the mark --- makes this a monumental upset if Dallas wins?

I never thought this would be a monumental upset and I don't think that was the general feeling until Game 1, where Miami looked young and energetic and Dallas looked old and slow. After that game, I think the perception of the series changed and the "upset" context was created.

Before the series, I think more people thought Miami would win than Dallas, but a lot of people thought Dallas would win.

 

[zagoshe]

Regular season records: Heat 58-24, Mavs 57-25. Head-to-Head: Mavs 2-0.

Postseason records: Heat 14-6, Mavs 15-5.

What --- other than preseason expectations that months ago proved to be horribly off the mark --- makes this a monumental upset if Dallas wins?

You might keep in mind that this isn't the same Dallas team that won 57 games. They lost their second leading scorer, Caron Butler, to season ending knee injury in January. Everybody thought Dallas' hopes were finished when Butler went down. Plus they're now playing without Haywood in addition to Butler.

With Miami, it's the opposite situation. They have a more loaded roster than the one that won 58 regular season games. Udonis Haslem, Mike Miller and Mike Bibby weren't playing for them the first half of the season when they were struggling. But they got everybody back at full strength and added Bibby before the playoffs.

This.

Plus what Brian said.

Watching the two teams on the court together, Miami should be ten points better than Dallas (as it is constituted now) on most nights and would have swept this series if Lebron was even average in the fourth quarters and down the stretch of games 2 and 4.

 

[Small Town Guy]

Some stats:

Since the beloved 2-3-2 format went into effect, the home team has gone back down 3-2 seven times. They're 3-4, pretty good. Celtics lost in 1985, Lakers won in '88, Suns lost in '93, Rockets won in '94, Jazz lost in '98, Mavs lost in 2006, Lakers won in 2010. The four road teams that won all won Game 6, didn't allow it to go to Game 7.

And I'd have to check online for pre 1980. But since '80, I believe only the 1984 Celtics and the 2006 Heat have come back from a 2-1 deficit in the Finals, which the Mavs are trying to do.

And history says don't be the road team in a Game 7.

There have been 17 Games 7s since 1950. Only three road teams have won it: Celtics at the Lakers in the dreaded Baloon Game in 1969. The Celtics in 1974 at Milwaukee. And the Bullets at Seattle in 1978.

Maybe it'd be fitting for the Heat to lose a Game 7 at home. I could see it being like '69. Their preseason bash was sort of like the balloons. LeBron will suffer an injury with the Heat trailing and as they rally he asks to be put back in, but Spoelstra refuses because Eddie House is just on fire. With the Mavs up 2 late, Brian Cardinal takes a shot that hits the rim, goes high in the air and falls through the net, clinching the title.

After the game, Dirk hugs a disconsolate...Dan LeBatard.

 

[Tommy_Dreamer]

Some stats:

Since the beloved 2-3-2 format went into effect, the home team has gone back down 3-2 seven times. They're 3-4, pretty good. Celtics lost in 1985, Lakers won in '88, Suns lost in '93, Rockets won in '94, Jazz lost in '98, Mavs lost in 2006, Lakers won in 2010. The four road teams that won all won Game 6, didn't allow it to go to Game 7.

And I'd have to check online for pre 1980. But since '80, I believe only the 1984 Celtics and the 2006 Heat have come back from a 2-1 deficit in the Finals, which the Mavs are trying to do.

And history says don't be the road team in a Game 7.

There have been 17 Games 7s since 1950. Only three road teams have won it: Celtics at the Lakers in the dreaded Baloon Game in 1969. The Celtics in 1974 at Milwaukee. And the Bullets at Seattle in 1978.

Maybe it'd be fitting for the Heat to lose a Game 7 at home. I could see it being like '69. Their preseason bash was sort of like the balloons. LeBron will suffer an injury with the Heat trailing and as they rally he asks to be put back in, but Spoelstra refuses because Eddie House is just on fire. With the Mavs up 2 late, Brian Cardinal takes a shot that hits the rim, goes high in the air and falls through the net, clinching the title.

After the game, Dirk hugs a disconsolate...Dan LeBatard.

You do know that if the Mavs win the series LeBatard has to wear a speedo on South Beach. if the Heat win, Charles Barkley has to.

(everyone loses in this one)

 

[D-3 Fan]

Totally off topic: In press conferences, why do Lebron and Wade constantly look down at the podium when they talk, as if there was a sheet of paper there telling them what to say? It is very annoying and makes them look terrible.

Because they lack the basic concept of eye contact.

qtlaw, this is unrelated to the topic, but I'm guilty of not making eye contact from time to time myself.

As someone who is stutterer, it's intimidating and difficult to talk to people and look at them in the eye without stuttering like a sputtering 1928 Porter. As a way to compensate, I find another part of the face to focus on while talking, like the nose, so I can focus on talking to them face-to-face than to look away and talk. The latter does gives off the impression that a person: a). like Wade and James, do not want to face the press and answer to the pressure; or b). someone who does not like (or is scared to death of) talking to the media.

Wade and James are examples of A.

 

[D-3 Fan]

Yeah, that or they're both pathological liars who so seldom utter an honest word they stare away from people out of habit.

Gee thanks for calling a liar! You have a lie detector?

 

[Small Town Guy]

Saw this stat on ESPN:

Dirk averaging 10.4 points in 4Qs, most in Finals since Shaq averaged 11.5 points in 2000.

By law, everything must be tied into LeBron somehow so I'll do it here. I've seen Simmons and Wilbon, among others, say they think fatigue is something of a factor in LeBron's fourth-quarter struggles in the Finals. He averaged 38 minutes during the regular season, 44 during the playoffs. Definitely a heavy load during the playoffs.

But...Shaq averaged 40 during the regular season in 2000 (best shape of his life and Jackson challenged him to play big minutes) and then played 43 per game in the playoffs. Yet the big fella managed to have enough left in the tank for the fourth quarters. Fatigue seems like a bit of a stretch for LeBron's situation.

 

[BrianGriffin]

Saw this stat on ESPN:

Dirk averaging 10.4 points in 4Qs, most in Finals since Shaq averaged 11.5 points in 2000.

By law, everything must be tied into LeBron somehow so I'll do it here. I've seen Simmons and Wilbon, among others, say they think fatigue is something of a factor in LeBron's fourth-quarter struggles in the Finals. He averaged 38 minutes during the regular season, 44 during the playoffs. Definitely a heavy load during the playoffs.

But...Shaq averaged 40 during the regular season in 2000 (best shape of his life and Jackson challenged him to play big minutes) and then played 43 per game in the playoffs. Yet the big fella managed to have enough left in the tank for the fourth quarters. Fatigue seems like a bit of a stretch for LeBron's situation.

How deep were the teams Shaq was playing in 2000? Dallas is extraordinarily deep, I think, although their depth took a hit with Haywood's injury. They can give you a second unit of Barea (yes, he's started the last two games, but I'm trying to keep the integrity of the positions), Terry, Stojakovic (probably butchered that, sorry not looking up for a message board ;-) or Cardinal and Mahinmi. The only one in the second five who really doesn't play is Brewer. Of course, Haywood is out or the second unit would be even better.

The second five is probably as good as some first fives in the NBA.

The Mavs are deep enough where they can give Dirk the early rest they give him and another extended rest in the second half.

 

[Piotr Rasputin]

Saw this stat on ESPN:

Dirk averaging 10.4 points in 4Qs, most in Finals since Shaq averaged 11.5 points in 2000.

By law, everything must be tied into LeBron somehow so I'll do it here. I've seen Simmons and Wilbon, among others, say they think fatigue is something of a factor in LeBron's fourth-quarter struggles in the Finals. He averaged 38 minutes during the regular season, 44 during the playoffs. Definitely a heavy load during the playoffs.

But...Shaq averaged 40 during the regular season in 2000 (best shape of his life and Jackson challenged him to play big minutes) and then played 43 per game in the playoffs. Yet the big fella managed to have enough left in the tank for the fourth quarters. Fatigue seems like a bit of a stretch for LeBron's situation.

How deep were the teams Shaq was playing in 2000? Dallas is extraordinarily deep, I think, although their depth took a hit with Haywood's injury. They can give you a second unit of Barea (yes, he's started the last two games, but I'm trying to keep the integrity of the positions), Terry, Stojakovic (probably butchered that, sorry not looking up for a message board ;-) or Cardinal and Mahinmi. The only one in the second five who really doesn't play is Brewer. Of course, Haywood is out or the second unit would be even better.

The second five is probably as good as some first fives in the NBA.

The Mavs are deep enough where they can give Dirk the early rest they give him and another extended rest in the second half.

Worth noting that each of the teams Jordan and the Bulls beat for their first three titles were probably deeper than those Bulls.

So many horseshirt players on those Bulls teams. b"Mr. Six Fouls" big men like Scott Williams and Will Perdue, BJ Armstrong (jack up threes and nothing else), Bill Cartwright as the starting center on a title team?

Yet they won three in a row.

The Lakers who won it under Jackson a decade ago: in 2000 they weren't nearly as deep as Portland, and in 2002 they weren't nearly as deep as Sacramento.

Superstars overcome a lack of depth. They also overcome fatigue.

If you're LeBron (and Wade, for that matter) and you're gonna run your mouth about Nowitzki's illness, then any claims of being in your 20s but being fatigued fall on deaf ears at best, and are rejected as complete bullcrap at worst.

Kobe had an injured finger on his shooting hand, a bad knee, etc. the last couple of years. Jordan had the flu game. That's the bar.

 

[JonnyD]

He's already fallen short of that bar with his performance this series. Unless he has two amazing games in him, the only question is how many tiers down is he going to end up.

 

[Tommy_Dreamer]

And I do believe that is the Mavs' biggest lead of the series.

 

[heyabbott]

James plays as if he is owed a championship.