I haven't been able to pay a ton of attention, but I think the only way VCU is in real danger is if it loses the quarterfinal game on Friday. I'd feel differently if the loss last Friday was to anyone but Dayton. Rams should root for St. Joe's to win its first game, as the Hawks just snuck inside the NET top 75, giving the Rams another Q1 win since they beat St. Joe's in Philly.
I think VCU is a virtual lock. Very good metrics, 7-5 Q1-2, 10-5 road/neutral. There's a Q4 loss, which never helps, but the last few years when everything else is good it has just gone toward seeding. Losing early always means sweating, but really, not a lot to worry about on this one. Especially with the crap bubble.