Ukraine Always Get What You Want

[TrooperBari]

Speaking of India, keep a close eye on them if this truly blows up into a war beyond Europe.
One of the general beliefs/fears is that once Russia goes into Ukraine, China will take that as an opportunity to invade Taiwan. But one of the lesser reported stories from the past few years has been a low-key border war between China and India. It's just been skirmishes so far, but there have been soldiers killed on both sides. A year or two ago they had a bloody hand-to-hand fight on the side of a mountain where they were throwing each other over the side. They've also made their share of diplomatic moves against each other, and after or in conjunction with a Taiwan invasion the ChiComs could look at the outbreak of war as an opportunity to clean up another problem area.
If China gets aggressive toward its neighbors, the first nuke to fly could well be launched by an Indian government that's about to be overrun.

That seems unlikely. On top of the leadership in Zhongnanhai wanting to keep everything nice and stable through the Olympics and October's Party congress (when Xi's third term will be made official), India and China are the only nuclear powers that have explicitly adopted a "no first use" policy. Plus, there's the strong disincentive of a two-front war on both sides. China wouldn't welcome dealing with Taiwan and India simultaneously, yes, but Pakistan is one of China's closest (if still informal) allies and wouldn't need much convincing to come to Beijing's aid in the event of an attack by India.

'India committed to no-first-use policy under nuclear doctrine': Shringla
https://warontherocks.com/2022/01/taiwan-is-not-ukraine-stop-linking-their-fates-together/

 

[Twirling Time]

To what end would Russia crash the Western economy? It's not like Russia, China, and NK can be a triumvirate of whatever and sustain their economies.

Putin knows we can put a conventional high-explosive cruise missile down his chimney and win WWIII without firing another shot. He can fork around and find out.

 

[Azrael]

Strongman gotta strongman.

Good explainer here:

The edge of war: what, exactly, does Putin want in Ukraine?

 

[Driftwood]

How reasonable is it that we could wake up one morning and have our accounts emptied through hacking?

Or that hackers can shut down our banking system and demand an insane ransom?

Maybe I've been doing too many drugs lately.

That's sort of my point. It today's world, warfare is cyber more than actual shooting. He would have far more to gain that way than a few acres of beet farms.

 

[Mngwa]

Hmmmmm

"Screenshot of CNN reporting on Russia and Ukraine has been altered, fact-checkers say" https://twitter.com/i/events/1492687865611833346?t=3cSYFyqCxIfFj4kUb-9LvQ&s=09

 

[Michael_ Gee]

Serious cyberattacks on the West would be a huge own goal, robbing Putin of his greatest asset in regards to Ukraine -- the apathy and indifference of the Western public to the situation.

 

[Neutral Corner]

 

[Azrael]

And on that note, this Obama take has aged like sun-ripened milk.

Not sure this is entirely a gotcha.

A) This was 10 years ago. At the time, Al Qaeda probably was the greater and more immediate threat to America(ns).

B) The Cold War has been over a long time, and the current troubles in Ukraine are only marginally a part of that history. Nor can those troubles be acted upon as they were in the past, strategically, with nuclear deterrence, or anything like the atomic stalemate of 1980. Putin is a mob boss doing mob boss things. It's a protection racket, and he's shaking down Western Europe.

C) Russia is the greatest geopolitical threat facing Ukraine, not America.

D) Thanks to its location, and to the strength of its agriculture and weakness of its politics, control of Ukraine has passed between Russia and Poland and Austro-Hungary and the Soviet Union for centuries.

E) Western Europe is better positioned to handle all this, but probably won't.

 

[Neutral Corner]

Very interesting (and disconcerting) thread here regarding Russia sanctions, what has been taken off the table, and how they can beat them or strike back.

 

[Azrael]

"No, Mr. Bond. I expect you do die."

 

[Alma]

And on that note, this Obama take has aged like sun-ripened milk.

I'm not sure Obama was wrong.

Romney was parroting a neocon wish for Russia to be our biggest threat. It's a desire - a way to prolong a conflict that lined many a pocket and gave purpose to many a life for a half-century or more.

When Trump won in 2016 and "it had to be Russia!" became the primary driving force for his victory, the neocons wish was back on the table. Whether you believe, or not, that Russia is responsible for Trump's victory in 2016, or that Trump was working on behalf of Russia in the Hunter Biden affair, we are now on the brink of war. American soldiers might die. I cannot possibly understand how that's a good thing.

 

[Inky_Wretch]

Do y'all think the US is going to get into a shooting war with Russia over Ukraine?