2024-25 College Basketball Thread

[sgreenwell]

Went to VCU-UMash last night, and the Rams just toyed with the Minutemen, who admittedly stink. I still think there's a road to an at-large for VCU. They have five games left and only leave the city once (3/4 at Duquesne). They have to win out and probably get to the A-10 final to feel safe, but I think a path is there. They'll be a dangerous draw if they get in. Deep with multiple outside shooting threats and some athletic bigs. Going to the George Mason game on Saturday, which will decide the regular-season title.

They have a path, yeah, which I didn't think they had coming into the A-10 regular season. It helps that they've just been pasting other A-10 teams, which has helped their metrics because there aren't a ton of absolute dogs in the league this year.

UMash goes to the MAC next year, which leaves Martin in a weird spot. I don't think he's been incredible there, with his playing time decisions looking quite odd from the outside looking in, but it's hard to imagine he signed up to be coaching a low major squad.

 

[tapintoamerica]

The wild thing is it isn't a clean rebuild story. Gates went 11-7 his first year in the league (and blew a golden chance at the Sweet 16 against Princeton), 0-18 last year and now 9-4 and counting in the hardest year ever to win in the SEC.

I don't know that many schools are going to be using this as a pressure point since so much depends on remaking the roster each year and how much NIL cash there is to work with. But imagine Lamont Paris at South Carolina is going to be haunted by this ghost next winter if he can't bounce back.

As for Mizzou, they are already at 20 wins now. Four or five more with a bunch of quad 1 wins could put them in the mix for a 2 seed.

That is amazing. What a strange trip it's been. Probably only something that can occur in the era of perpetual player freedom.

 

[TheSportsPredictor]

Love, Abby: The forever friendship between the UConn Huskies and one magical fan

Carve some time out for this. Bring tissues.

Jesus.

And who is Sam Borden? He just lapped the field.

 

[dixiehack]

Got our tickets for a piece of the women's dance in Bham. One Sweet 16 session and one Elite 8.

 

[Della9250]

Jesus.

And who is Sam Borden? He just lapped the field.

Very good at what he does, dating back to his days a couple decades ago at the Daily News

 

[Cosmo]

They have a path, yeah, which I didn't think they had coming into the A-10 regular season. It helps that they've just been pasting other A-10 teams, which has helped their metrics because there aren't a ton of absolute dogs in the league this year.

UMash goes to the MAC next year, which leaves Martin in a weird spot. I don't think he's been incredible there, with his playing time decisions looking quite odd from the outside looking in, but it's hard to imagine he signed up to be coaching a low major squad.

Lunardi has VCU in as an at-large for the first time this morning, in one of the play-in games against Arkanpig. Obviously, everything is contingent on VCU winning out, because any loss in the final five would be Q2 or lower, but yeah, that path is there.

Totally forgot about UMash going to the MAC in all sports. That's going to be weird.

 

[dixiehack]

Presuming the A-10 loses its projected at large this weekend (either VCU takes over first place or suffers a damaging loss) that sends it back to three projected mid-major at large bids (two for the Mountain West, one for the WCC).

Charlie Creme's projected women's bracket is even more stark, with only Harvard getting an at-large from economy clash. He does project four non-power league teams just missing the cut, including Princeton as the first one out. Imagine a three-bid Ivy League!

 

[Cosmo]

Correct, though a VCU win (and four more after that) would give the Rams a shot should they falter in the A-10 tournament. That's the real importance of them showing up in a projection right now. Mason doesn't have an at-large case.

 

[tapintoamerica]

Correct, though a VCU win (and four more after that) would give the Rams a shot should they falter in the A-10 tournament. That's the real importance of them showing up in a projection right now. Mason doesn't have an at-large case.

The really interesting one will be Drake. Love the Drake.

 

[YMCA B-Baller]

Quad 1 records for teams currently as last four in or first eight out in Lunardi's bracket:
Vanderbilt 2-8
Arkansas 3-9
VCU 1-1
Wake Forest 2-6
---
Oklahoma 4-8
SMU 0-4
Georgia 2-10
North Carolina 1-10
Xavier 1-9
Indiana 3-11
Boise State 2-5
Pitt 1-8

If that's not an indictment of how ship this tournament has become with the deck stacked heavily towards power conference teams, I don't know what is.

Power teams counter by saying mids don't play anyone. Well, play them then and let them rise or fall on their merits, but the minute a mid-major becomes anything like a threat to actually beat a power team, they become untouchable as far as scheduling is concerned.

There are exceptions. I admire Alabama for not fearing challenging games against mid-level teams, but most power teams stack the deck in a way that really hurts the tournament.

 

[sgreenwell]

Quad 1 records for teams currently as last four in or first eight out in Lunardi's bracket:
Vanderbilt 2-8
Arkansas 3-9
VCU 1-1
Wake Forest 2-6
---
Oklahoma 4-8
SMU 0-4
Georgia 2-10
North Carolina 1-10
Xavier 1-9
Indiana 3-11
Boise State 2-5
Pitt 1-8

If that's not an indictment of how ship this tournament has become with the deck stacked heavily towards power conference teams, I don't know what is.

Power teams counter by saying mids don't play anyone. Well, play them then and let them rise or fall on their merits, but the minute a mid-major becomes anything like a threat to actually beat a power team, they become untouchable as far as scheduling is concerned.

There are exceptions. I admire Alabama for not fearing challenging games against mid-level teams, but most power teams stack the deck in a way that really hurts the tournament.

As a fan of a mid-major team, it's really the most frustrating thing. I'm not sure how you "fix" it, unless you just more heavily penalize teams for only playing Q3, Q4 games OOC. Or hell, use a computer algorithm to attempt a "balanced" schedule for each team - You get 3 to 5 games against regional rivals, and the other 8ish or so are randomly spit out based on the previous year.

 

[Cosmo]

Sorry to harp on VCU, but as one of the few non P5s that have a shot, just wanted to break down their schedule.

First off, the only way they'll ever get a P5 school to come to Richmond is if said P5 school poaches VCU's coach. That's how they got Texas (Shaka) and LSU (Will Wade) to visit. Penn State has to visit at some point. Virginia too if they pluck Odom this offseason, which is a rumor going around.

They played Boston College at a neutral site and whooped them, but BC is terrible so that's a Q4 win. They inexplicably lost to Seton Hall in the Charleston Clashic, and instead of playing Villanova next and perhaps Drake in the final, they got stuck with Nevada (loss) and Miami (win). Only Miami is plum awful and that win means nothing. They do have a decent neutral win against Colorado State and played New Mexico in a true road game.

Basketball is by far the biggest money maker at the school, so they can't just go the route of playing a bunch of road games against P5s. They need non-conference home revenue. I remember a story a few years back talking about home scheduling philosophy, and it was better to load up with terrible home teams rather than playing teams in the 76-160 range at home. That's why they play Bellarmine and Merrimack instead of say, ODU and Liberty, which would be much better games and much bigger tests. You don't get much of a bounce by beating a Q3 at home, but you sure as ship will get punished for losing to one. So if you're VCU, you schedule sure wins against Penn and Georgia Southern rather than roll the dice with someone like High Point (87) or UNCW (108). Win gets you minimal gain, a loss is a disaster.